Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NBA Monday comes to us with a 7-game slate. The highlight of the evening is the late game with Boston continuing its west-coast road trip against the Clippers. Brooklyn should field a normal roster tonight against the Wizards after resting half of its team against Indiana on Saturday night. The most fun game of the night no one is thinking of: Thunder vs Mavericks with Luka Doncic returning and the Thunder winning 2 of their last 4 on the road.
Let’s take a dive into my favorite player props.
Darius Garland (CLE) Over 8.5 assists (-105)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Garland has seen some fluctuation lately in his assist total, but the opportunities are still there. You could make the argument they have increased in December (15 potential assists per game) compared to November (14.5 potential assists per game). I attribute the inconsistency in results to matchups and lineup changes. Center Jarett Allen missed 5 games straight in late November/early December and returned to the lineup 3 games ago. Donovan Mitchell has missed 2 straight games and is questionable for tonight’s matchup with the Spurs. This is right at his November average of 8.5APG and I’m expecting both Mobley/Allen to have a field day against the Spurs frontcourt. Instead of playing their point totals because I’m unsure which player will benefit the most, I’m pivoting to Garland’s assists. He has hit this line in 6 of 11 victories this season that he’s played in and this kicks off a 2-game road trip with Dallas on Wednesday night. San Antonio allows the 2nd-most PPG to opposing centers over the last 7 and the most ppg to opposing PFs in that same span. We should see a lot of successful high pick-and-rolls with Zach Collins defending the rim for San Antonio. 1U
Jaylen Brown (BOS) Under 29.5 P+A (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Two defensive juggernauts clash tonight in the Celtics and the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are essentially looking in the mirror at the younger version of themselves in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and I think it sparks a fire for 2 guys who sometimes lack regular-season motivation. Brown has dominated this most recent road trip, averaging 28PPG, however, his top performances were against the Nets and fast pace’d Warriors. Against Toronto and Phoenix, he had 22 and 25 respectively. This is the penultimate game of the road trip, with a back-to-back against the Lakers tomorrow. You can occasionally find these players slacking at the end of road trips. The Clippers rank 3rd in eFG%, 2nd in At Rim Opponent Shooting Efficiency and 10th in Opponent 3-point Shooting Efficiency. Brown will have his hands full defensively with George and Leonard. Brown’s number take a dip on the road for the season, averaging 25 ppg and 3.3 apg. 0.5U for me.
Josh Giddey (OKC) Over 27.5 PRA (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Giddey is having one hell of a December. The Australian native is shooting a season high 44% from 3 and averaging 31 PRA for the month. His road splits for the season are worth noting, as he has performing better in points and rebounds when traveling — averaging 28.5 PRA. Dallas has been vulnerable to SFs in the last 7 games, giving up the 2nd-most APG and 5th-most PPG in that span. I have been an early proponent of Giddey’s improved 3-point shooting and he is finally hitting his stride, making 2+ treys in 3 of the last 4 games. Giddey posted 1 of his 3 career triple-doubles against the Mavericks last year. It’s worth a sprinkle tonight; 1U on the PRA total.
Degenerate Parlay +17180
- Kyrie Irving 28P + Nets Win +220
- Josh Giddey Triple Double +1700
- Darius Garland Double-Double + Cavs Win +200
$5 pays $859
