Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It’s the day after Thanksgiving and we are gifted 14 NBA games to enjoy our Friday evening. It will be interesting to see if we catch any players feeling the effects of yesterdays holiday, but I decided to go with a small slate of picks that I felt comfortable with. Currently, I’m picking 61% on the season (28-17) for +4.5U. I’ve managed to avoid piling on plays for the sake of quantity>quality and it’s paid off. Best of luck tonight and hope you enjoyed the holiday yesterday!
Josh Hart Over 11.5 rebounds + assists (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hart has hit this number in 12/18 games (66%) but gets a favorable matchup in the NY Knicks on the road. The Blazers SF sees an uptick across the board on the road, averaging 13.7 A+R per game. His USG also goes up while playing the visitor role, +2.5 on the road. The Knicks allow the 2nd-most RPG and 3rd-most APG to opposing SFs over the last 15 games. Julius Randle & Co come home to Madison Square Garden after a 5-game road stretch, where they allow the 9th-most assists per game. Dame Lillard is once again out of the lineup, and I expect Hart to have a big role in today’s matchup on the offensive side of the ball. The Knicks shoot the 2nd-fewest 3P attempts per game, which will prevent Hart from getting too far away from the basket on rebound opportunities. 1U from me.
Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points (-104)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Banchero returns after missing 7 straight games. He’s averaging 23.5PPG overall and 25.8 PPG at home. The 76ers allow the 2nd-most FG attempts within 5 feet of the rim, where Paolo does most of his dirty work. The rookie has hit this line in 80% of games this season. The 76ers have been scrappy in Embiid’s absence, pulling out an upset against the Brooklyn Nets the other night. Their new starting lineup of Melton, Milton, Harrell, Tucker and Harris does an outstanding job of defending the perimeter but will struggle to contain Paolo in the paint. 1U.
John Collins Over 0.5 steals (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I was surprised to find that Collins has logged a steal in 11 of 18 games this season, including one against Houston the first game of the season. He’s seen his point totals fluctuate over the last 7 games but has been active defensively and hit this in 5 of the L7. The Rockets are allowing a turnover on 17.6% of their possessions, worst in the league. This makes the line more attractive as the Hawks are 6th overall in PACE and we should see an increased amount of possessions. Clint Capela is questionable for tonight’s game and Collins should continue to see 30+min against a frontcourt flocked with inexperienced forwards: Jabari Smith Jr, Tari Eason and Usman Garuba all average 0.9 turnovers per game or more. 1U from me.
Degenerate Parlay +75595
- Paolo Banchero 25+ points
- John Collins DD +
ATL Win
- Josh Hart DD + POR Win
- Lebron 4+ 3PM + LAL Win
$5 wins $3779
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