Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Wednesday night in the NBA is the equivalent of NFL Sunday. We get the top-of-the-line matchups and a deep slate to choose from. After watching for 2 weeks, I feel comfortable increasing my unit size to reflect more confidence in certain plays. I have two 1U plays below. As usual, I have a degenerate parlay for you to mull over or a Round Robin if you wish. Best of luck!
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Julius Randle Over 28.5 Points and Rebounds (-120)
Line available at DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
All of the attention is on Trae Young tonight as he returns to MSG. The value in his points and 3P’s are completely gone at this point, but there is another player I expect to step up against the Hawks. Julius Randle is coming off two tough front courts in Milwaukee and Cleveland, but prior to that he was averaging 20.25PPG. The Hawks give up the 2nd most points and 6th most RPG to opposing PF’s. He hit this in 2/3 games the Hawks last season and all 3 the season prior. He’s had TWO 40-point games against Atlanta in his career (both at home), but I’m going with the safe play of including his rebounds as Atlanta ranks 24th in rebounding rate. 1U from me.
Marcus Morris Over 14.5 Points (-110)
Line available at Fanduel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Morris has shot 12+ FGA in 3 straight games and went 5/14 from the field against Houston the other night. The opportunities were there, but he just couldn’t in a rhythm. Morris was also 1/7 from 3 in that game (highest 3PA all season). This Houston team is young and bottom 7 in defensive rating. The veteran should continue to put up 12+ FGA against this squad, but I’m expecting the shots to fall tonight. Foul trouble will dictate if he eclipses 30min because in games he’s not in foul trouble he’s averaging 15.6PPG. This is 0.5U from me.
Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-104)
Line available at FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Allen has hit this line in 4/6 games, including one against Boston 5 days ago (in OT). The Celtics lack a true center and are giving up the 5th most RPG to opposing Centers. A double-double for Allen may represent more value at +102, but I’m more confident in the rebounding angle. Why? Both teams shot 51% from the field in their first matchup which highly unlikely to happen again. There will be more rebounding opportunities in tonight’s matchup. 0.5U
Davion Mitchell Over 22.5 Point Rebounds Assists (-122)
Line available at FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
De’Aaron Fox is a scratch tonight and Davion Mitchell gets the start at PG tonight for the Kings. Getting Kyle Lowry on a back-to-back is a gift for Mitchell getting the start. As a starter last season, he averaged 18-2-7 (27PRA) and he’s improved upon his 3P%, FG%, and effective FG % from his rookie year. Tonight, could be explosive from Mitchell, but we’ll get more to that in the degenerate parlay. 1U from me.
Jordan Clarkson Over 16.5 Points (-114)
Line available at FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Dallas is allowing the 6th most PPG to opposing SG’s and I think Markannen has some trouble tonight with the size of Dallas’ frontcourt. Clarkson will need to pick up the scoring. He’s coming off a down game against Memphis (3/14 from the field) into a favorable matchup. Clarkson followed up his 10point opening night performance with 29 and his putrid 6point performance with 21. He’s a consistent 7 3PA per game and a lock for 30+min as a starter. 0.5U from me.
Degenerate Parlay (+389847 odds!)
Julius Randle 30+ Points (+700)
Davion Mitchell DD (+1060)
Marcus Morris 20+ Points (+300)
Jordan Clarkson 25+ Points (+550)
Jordan Clarkson 4+ 3PM (+360)
A $5 wager pays out $19,492
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