Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have another NBA Wednesday slate ahead of us with 10 games to choose from. It’s worth mentioning the Pelicans, Knicks and Mavericks are all on back-to-backs. Last night’s Grizzlies vs Pelicans game felt like a playoff atmosphere and I’m curious if it means New Orleans comes out flat against Chicago tonight. Zion is day-to-day with his foot contusion, so that’s something to monitor throughout the day. Check back in tonight for more plays, where I’ll add more plays and my degenerate parlay!
Don’t miss our NBA picks for each of tonight’s 10 games
Shai Gilgeous Alexander under 29.5 points (-115)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This will not be a popular pick, but it must be done. SGA is averaging 31.5 ppg and has had 30+ points in 4 of his last 5 games, but he runs into one of the best defensive teams in the NBA tonight in the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are 6th overall in eFG%, 4th overall in shooting percentage at the rim and 6th in defending the mid-range. That is where 79% of SGA’s shot attempts are coming from this season. Washington takes a dip defending 3P shots, but SGA is averaging barely 3 per game. In short, what SGA does well will come very difficult tonight.
The Wizards are 24th overall in pace and 8th overall in adjusted defensive rating. It’s one of the more overlooked storylines of this season, but the Wizards are getting it done on the defensive end of the floor this year. Delon Wright has been a welcomed addition defensively and Deni Avdija is playing outstanding perimeter defense to match what Kristaps Porzingis is doing in the paint. They’re doing all of this while allowing the 4th-fewest free-throw attempts per game. It could be a tough night ahead for SGA. 1U from me.
Be sure to check out our full Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards predictions
Mason Plumlee under 9.5 points (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
We are seeing an overreaction to Plumlee’s 18-point performance two nights ago against Orlando. Prior to that game, Plumlee was averaging a firm 9 ppg and has only hit this number in 6/15 (40%) of games this season. Making this play more attractive, there’s a good chance the Hornets center finds himself on the bench from foul trouble. He’s had 4+ fouls in 8/15 and he’s played under 26 minutes in 7/15 games this season. It’s a crapshoot to peg down how much playing time he will see any given night.
LaMelo Ball’s return leaves Steve Clifford with the task of tinkering lineups for the Hornets. In LaMelo’s first game, he went 9 deep. In LaMelo’s second game, he only went 8 deep, but Plumlee was needed to combat the size of the Orlando Magic frontcourt. The icing on the cake is that the Pacers are 2nd overall in opponent shooting percentage at the rim. Plumlee should struggle to score when he is on the court, which may not be too long (~27min). 1U from me.
Be sure to check out our full Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets predictions
PJ Washington Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Pacers are allowing the 3rd most PPG and 6th most RPG to opposing SF’s and this line is low enough to jump on Washington coming off mixed performances with Lamelo Ball back in the lineup. From a rebounding perspective, he should see more opportunities as the Pacers are 2nd overall in PACE and bottom 10 in effective shooting efficiency from mid-range/shots at the rim. From a scoring angle, the Pacers are 26th adjusted defensive rating and 24th in OPP effective field goal efficiency. Against a similarly ranked team (Sacremento), Washington exploded for 28 points and 5 rebounds. He could be a darkhorse for a big game tonight as the defensive focus will shift to matching the 3-guard output of Ball, Rozier, and Oubre. This is a 1U play.
Be sure to check out our full Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets predictions
Nikola Vucevic 15+ Points + Bulls Win (+198)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Grizzlies vs Pelicans game last night had a playoff level of intensity. New Orleans pulled out the victory, but I can see them coming out flat tonight against the Bulls coming off of 3 days rest. Zion Williamson will be out tonight, and it will be tough for CJ McCollum to replicate last nights performance against a Bulls team ranked 3rd in adjust defensive rating. Vucevic has a good matchup as well, where he scored 18 points vs the Pelicans on November 9th on only 9 FGA. The Pels in general are allowing the 3rd highest shooting efficiency at the rim this season, where Vucevic should see most of his shot attempts tonight. The Pelicans have lost the 2nd of both back-to-back stints this season. 0.5U from me.
Be sure to check out our full Chicago Bulls vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions
Josh Giddey Over 1.5 3PM (+140)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Again? Yes, again. When doing my research on SGA this morning, I noticed a trend with Giddey. In games where SGA goes below 30 points in a game, Giddey is 5/8 from 3. He’s hit this 2+ mark in 2/3 of those games that SGA stayed under 30 points. And for how good Washington is defensively, their weakness is 3P shooting. They’re ranked 26th overall in OPP 3P shooting efficiency and give up the 4th most 3PM to opposing SF’s all season. At 6’8 210lbs, Giddey and Dort are using interchangeably at the SF position, but positions have become more meaningless in today’s game. Either way, this is a great spot for Giddey to get two 3’s, as he already done in 5/11 games. He might even hit that elusive 3rd three I’ve been searching for all season. 0.5U play from me.
Degenerate Parlay (+9768 odds)
PJ Washington 18+ Points + Hornets Win (+390)
Nikola Vucevic Double-Double + Bulls Win (+280)
Josh Giddey 3+ 3PM (+410)
A $10 wager pays out $986.86
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