Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It’s a smaller slate of just 4 NBA games tonight, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the player prop markets! As usual, I have three straight plays I really like and a “degenerate parlay” worth sprinkling $5 on.
Check out our expert handicappers’ NBA analysis all season long
DeMar DeRozan Over 24.5 Points (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
DeRozan is getting the Brooklyn Nets on a back-to-back and Zach LaVine is expected to play tonight, but they are monitoring his knee. Regardless of LaVine in the lineup, DeRozan is averaging 25.9PPG and has double digit FT attempts in 4/7 games. Brooklyn is 26th in the league in opposing FT attempts per game at 23.4, so we should DeRozan get to the charity stripe with some regularity. From a matchup perspective, the Nets will likely throw Royce O’Neal and Joe Harris at DeRozan, which shouldn’t be much trouble. In the last two games against the Pacers, we saw wing scorers have their way with the Nets offensively. Tyrese Haliburton put 26, Buddy Hield scored 22, and Chris Duarte finished with 30. Last season, DeRozan put up 28 and 29 against this Nets squad. I’d play this up to 25.5.
Check out our Bulls vs Nets Same Game Parlay at +1368 odds
Tre Mann Over 11.5 points (-113)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
In 4 games as a starter, Mann is averaging 13.3PPG and 16.3PPG at home. His FG attempts and 3P attempts are all significantly higher at home versus road. While the Orlando Magic are trotting out a very long lineup of Paulo Banchero, Bol Bol and Michael Carter, this shouldn’t impact Mann too much as he’s only attempting 14% of his shots at the rim. He’s had most of his success in the mid-range this season. He has one explosive game under his belt (25 vs LAC), but 3 of the remaining 5 have been in the 12-14 range. The Thunder will need offense outside of SGA tonight, and I look for Mann to be that guy.
Don’t miss today’s +1041 NBA mega parlay
Kyle Lowry Over 11.5 points (-120)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Lowry has hit this number in 5/7 games this season, including the one vs GSW back on 10/27. The reason I’m so high on this play is that against GSW earlier in the season, he had his 3rd most shot attempts and most 3PA, but second fewest FTA. I see him as able to take advantage of his matchup with Steph Curry, and coming off of two days rest versus being on a back-to-back like the previous game matters in year 17. His 3PT are worth considering, but I like him to get back to the FT line more in this matchup.
Here’s our full Warriors vs Heat preview
Degenerate Parlay (+39557)
Kyle Lowry 15+Points
Kyle Lowry 4+ 3PM
Tre Mann 15+ Points
Tre Mann 3+ 3PM
DeMar DeRozan 30+P
Karl Anthony Towns 4+ 3PM
$5 –> $1977
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