Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
NBA Season is finally here. In contrast to the NFL, it is a GRIND. There are games almost every night, minutes/rotations are fluid, past performances hold more weight, and travel can play a big role. I usually start the season with 0.5U plays unless stated otherwise as players are still getting into game shape and we are sorting out teams’ rotations. I have this “grace period” for roughly 15-20 games. If you are going to bet NBA, I strongly suggest investing in NBA League pass. I personally like to follow 2-4 interesting teams throughout the season, and they are commonly referred to as my “League Pass Teams”. This season I’ll be invested in the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Sacramento Kings, and Denver Nuggets. That doesn’t mean I won’t be watching other games, but these 4 just really intrigue me heading into the season.
My articles will consist of straight plays like my NFL pieces, but the bottom section will be where chaos ensues. This is where you’ll find “player performance doubles” and alt lines with juicier odds. I plan on targeting tanking teams (Pacers, Thunder, Charlotte, Spurs) for Player Performance Doubles. Last season in NBA I went 126-106(54%) for +8.26U and although that is positive, it is not acceptable for this upcoming season. Please be patient with NBA, but we will have our exciting nights! Make sure you’re following me on twitter @PropHolliday!
Check out our expert handicappers’ NBA analysis all season long
Jayson Tatum over 7.5 rebounds (+108)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Al Horford is 36 years old and entering his 16th season, I’m not expecting much from him between now and Christmas. He’ll start, he’ll get 26-28 minutes, but his value comes in May. The Celtics will play a good deal of small ball this season with Blake Griffin and Grant Williams until Robert Williams returns. Tatum is likely the best rebounder on this team and coming off a Finals appearance at 24 years old, this could be his “wow” year. The one where he takes that last step into elite territory. Those types of players come out of the gate steaming. Tatum hit this number in all 4 games against the 76ers last year and I was excited to see this line below 8.5 at + odds. He also had 11 rebounds in the season opener last year. It’s available at 6.5 -160 on DK, but I feel confident in the 7.5 at + money on FanDuel. 0.5U
James Harden over 2.5 3-pointers made (+150)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Harden is heading into this season in the best shape mentally and physically since probably 2018. Despite playing only 23mpg in the preseason, he shot 46.7% from 3P. I don’t put much stock into preseason stats but shooting % stands out to me. It means your legs are underneath you, which normally takes players a few games to get back. Despite playing only 23Min, he still averaged 2.3 3PM this preseason and it should be more indicative of his role going forward. The days of Harden getting 10-11 free throw attempts per game are over; the 76ers have a dominant big man in Embiid and an emergent off ball guard in Tyrese Maxey. Harden be an effective initiator of the offense and floor spacer with his shooting. In one game against Boston last year, he went 4/9 from 3P. I’ll take this line at 2.5 with the plus odds for 0.5U.
Anthony Davis over 11.5 rebounds + assists (-108)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Anthony Davis has shed the additional weight he put on last season when he moved to Center. He’s healthy (at this moment in time) and the Lakers need him to be “the man”. Thomas Bryant was brought in to allow AD to play his natural position of stretch 4. I’m expecting AD to be a walking double double every night and his preseason rebounding % of 18% is 8 points higher than years. In last years home opener against the GSW, AD had 11 rebounds and 2 assists. I’m expecting his usage to increase drastically this season as the focal point of the Lakers and with LeBron being relegated to transition buckets and 3 points at 38 years old, it should set up AD nicely with a few additional assists. The Warriors playing small ball at their standard fast pace should aid this number as well. I’ll invest in this one at 0.5U.
Degenerate Corner
Anthony Davis 12+Rebounds (+265)
Jayson Tatum 10+ Rebounds (+240)
Parlay: +1141
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