Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NBA Wednesday night is upon us, and it is the pinnacle of the basketball week. We have 9 games to focus on and a slew of great matchups that should leave us profitable at the end of the night. The Clippers and Nuggets are on a back-to-back and we get a showdown between 2018 draft swaps, Trae Young and Luka Doncic. The Hornets travel to Houston to battle it out for worst team in the league, while Darius Garland tries to keep the Cavs afloat against the Grizzlies in Donovan Mitchell’s absence. To end the night, we have the Sacramento Kings heading to the Staples Center Crypto Arena, taking on King James and the Lakers. Let’s dive into my favorite player props of the night.
Tyler Herro (MIA) over 26.5 PRA (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Herro has hit this in 72% of games this season and is averaging 31 PRA on the year. His first game back from missing 3 games due to the birth of his child, Herro put up 24 PRA on 15 points. He had an uncharacteristic night from deep (1/8) and didn’t get to the FT line once. He should be more aggressive tonight vs a Pelicans team allowing the 2nd most RPG to opposing SGs over the L7. Herro gets a road scoring bump, averaging 2 more PPG on the road. Love this bounce back spot for him at 1.5U. Playable to 28.5
Darius Garland (CLE) under 24.5 points (-118)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Cavs will be without Donovan Mitchell tonight as they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies. In 4 games without Mitchell, Garland only hit this in 1 of 4. The outlier being a 51-point performance in November. If we remove the outlier, Mitchell is averaging 17PPG in those contests. The Grizz pose a difficult matchup for Garland’s ability to finish at the rim, as they allow the 4th fewest points in the paint. I have the Grizz covering the -7.5 spread and it will take another outlier performance to hit this number. A blowout could also reduce his Garland’s minutes. 1U
Keegan Murray (SAC) over 16.5 PRA (-108)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Murray has hit this in 5 of his last 7 games, one of which was on reduced minutes due to foul trouble. The rookie small forward hit this in the last 2 matchups against the Lakers, missing it in his first matchup with King James. He’s been at a steady 12.6PPG through December and January, and his rebounding is nearly a consistent 4 per game in that same span. The Lakers are top 3 in the league in PACE, giving Murray a few more rebounding and scoring opportunities than he normally would. 1U
RJ Barrett (NYK) under 30.5 PRA (-120)
Line available on Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Barrett is far too Jekyl & Hyde to count on consistently and this number is inflated based off an OT performance against the Raptors on Monday. Barrett has hit this in 2 of his L4, both games he exceeded 40min of play. In his one game against the Wizards this season, he finished with 23 PRA and has only hit this ONCE in his last 7 matchups with the Wizards. Defensively, Washington is playing well of late. They’re allowing the 6th fewest RPG and 7th fewest PPG to opposing SGs. Unless Barrett sees another 40min night, I can’t see him hitting this line. 1U
Nikola Jokic (DEN) over 10.5 assists (+106)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Jokic is on a back-to-back tonight at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves who allow the 6th most assists per game to opposing teams. Jokic had only 9 assists in his matchup against the T-Wolves earlier in the season, but it came on 18 potential assists. That night, the Nuggets shot 46% from the field, below their season average of 50%. Despite the no rest, Jokic averages 11 APG in back-to-backs this season and the T-Wolves allow the 2nd worst Opp 3P% for the season (37%). Love this at + odds. 1U
$5 and a Dream Parlay (+16437)
- Lamelo Ball 10+AST / 10+REB (+846)
- Nikola Jokic 12+AST / DEN Win (+205)
- Tyler Herro 20+Point / MIA Win (+210)
- Domontas Sabonis DD / SAC Win (-118)
$5 pays $821
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