Filip Tomic
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The NBA weekend tips off with a 5-game slate featuring a doubleheader on NBA TV. In my analysis of all 5 games, I came across 3 player prop bets that caught my attention.
Continue reading to see them below, but also visit our NBA picks for predictions on the side and total for all 5 games taking place tonight.
Let’s dive into it!
Dejounte Murray over 20.5 points (-113)
One of either Dejounte Murray or Trae Young should have a big night tonight against the Raptors tonight. Toronto is very thin in the back-court right now with several players out with injury, so the dynamic duo of Atlanta should take advantage of that. I’m giving a slight edge to Murray, simply because of better efficiency. He’s 2nd on the team with 22.1 points per game over his last 10 outings, while shooting at a very efficient 46.2% from the field. He can also hit the 3-point shot, and so far in November he’s making 1.6 threes per game on a solid 31% shooting over his last 10 outings
With Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Otto Porter Jr., Pascal Siakam and Dalano Banton all out tonight, the Raptors will be very thin in the backcourt, which should work in favor of Murray. He has the height advantage over Fred VanVleet, with him knocking down 88.5% of his free-throws this season I expect him to be aggressive and attack the basket. In his last 2 games against the Raptors he’s had 25 and 20 points, I’m confident he can get to 21.
Lock in our Saturday NBA mega parlay at +600 odds!
Damian Lillard over 33.5 points + assists (-125)
Instead of going for 30 points every single game, Damian Lillard has slightly changed his approach this season and is focusing more on getting his teammates involved and so far it has worked to perfection. Although Portland lost the last game against Brooklyn, Lillard was able to dish out 11 assists, which was the 3rd straight game he was able to do so. His assist numbers are through the roof in November – he’s averaging 9.4 per game, which is quite the improvement from the 4.6 he was getting in October. Although the Jazz have been solid at stopping their opponent’s ball movement this season, they are allowing 25.3 assists per game over their last 3 outings, quite the drop-off from their usual 21.7 per game.
Dame has cleared this line in 2 of his last 3 games overall and that’s with him shooting under 40% in those games. It’s only a matter of time until his efficiency picks up, but even if he doesn’t he still has reliable teammates in Jerami Grant, Anfernee Hardaway and Jusuf Nurkic to dish the ball. In head-to-head meetings with the Jazz he’s averaging 29.4 points and 7.3 assists per game over the last 10. I’m expecting another productive game from him tonight.
Marcus Morris over 1.5 made threes (-210)
Although Kawhi Leonard coming back is likely going to hinder Morris a bit on the offensive end, I still feel like the way he has been playing lately has warranted us to back him tonight. He is 2nd on the team averaging 15.1 points per game and so far in November he is averaging 2.8 makes per game from downtown. In 9 games played he has failed to clear this line only twice, while shooting an impressive 42.4% from three.
Even the offensively limited Clippers should have a big scoring night against a team like San Antonio. The Spurs are dead last in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage allowing 39.3% makes from distance. That number is even worse on the road at 42.7%, plus in their 3 most recent games it’s gone up to a whopping 46.7%, so that’s something Morris can definitely capitalize on. In head-to-head meetings with San Antonio he’s knocked down a pair of threes in 6 of the last 7 games and is averaging 3 makes per game during that stretch on an unreal 48.8% efficiency.
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