Adam Ronis
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There are 11 games in the NBA Friday night with a lot of great spots for betting player props. Nine games have a line of 4.5 points or fewer and 7 games have a total of at least 230 points, with the Hawks-Lakers contest the highest at 242.5 points. Here are my picks for tonight.
Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points + rebounds (-105 on DraftKings)
This is a good spot for Harris with Joel Embiid out because of a foot injury. Harris gets a 4.2% increase in usage with Embiid off the floor. On Wednesday with Embiid out, Harris had 19 points and 10 rebounds and took 18 shots from the field against the Pacers. In the last 20 games without Embiid, Harris has come close to this prop total on points alone — averaging 19.9 points. In 9 games without Embiid this season, Harris has gone over this total 7 times and is averaging 26.9 points + rebounds. The Bulls allow the 4th-most points to power forwards and over the last 15 games have given up the most rebounds to power forwards. His points prop of 16.5 is also something to consider.
John Collins Over 14.5 points (-120 on FanDuel)
Collins has been inconsistent most of the season and has been plagued by foul trouble at times, fouling out 4 times. However, the Hawks’ forward has been having some of his best games recently and crushing his prop lines. Collins has scored at least 21 points in 4 of the last 5 games with 26, 21, 25 and 22. It’s a great matchup against the Lakers, who allow 22.42 points per game to power forwards. The 1 game in the last 5 Collins failed to score 15 points was against the Lakers, but that was because he fouled out in 23 minutes. In the 2 games since, Collins is shooting 16-for-28 from the field and 12-for-14 from the free-throw line.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 33.5 points + rebounds (-115 on DraftKings)
The Thunder don’t have the size to slow down Porzingis, who gets a slight boost in usage with Bradley Beal out. Mike Muscala is the tallest Thunder player at 6’11”, leaving the 7’3” Porzingis with a big size advantage. Porzingis played the Thunder on November 16 and had 27 points and 9 rebounds, while Beal played in the game scoring 25 points in a 121-120 home loss. The Thunder allow the 3rd-most rebounds to centers over the last 15 games.
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