Adam Ronis
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There are 9 games in the NBA Friday night with a lot of appealing matchups. Four games have a line of 3.5 points or fewer and 5 games have a total of at least 229 points, with the Grizzlies-Lakers game the highest at 243 points. Here are my picks for tonight.
Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 points + rebounds (-125)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Adebayo has become more aggressive offensively as the season has gone on. After averaging 12.3 shots from the field in the first month of the season, Adebayo is averaging 18 shots per game in January. The Heat center has gone over this total in 8 of the last 9 games. In the game he fell short he logged only 28 minutes and shot 5-for-15 from the field. He has scored at least 20 points in 10 of the last 11 games and has corralled at least 11 rebounds in 6 of the last 8. The Mavericks will be without Christian Wood and they allow the fourth-most points and rebounds to centers.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 15.5 points (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Foul trouble is always a risk for Jackson, but he’s been better lately. Jackson has 4 fouls or fewer in 9 of the last 12 games. He has gone over this line in 6 of the last 8 games. The game total is 243 points and the Lakers are 3rd in pace and the Grizzlies are 5th. The Lakers are 25th in points per game allowed in the paint and that’s where Jackson scores the most. Jackson is averaging 11.2 field goals per game in January and shooting 43.8 percent from 3-point range in the month.
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Spencer Dinwiddie Over 21.5 points + assists (-123)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Mavericks will need more offense from Dinwiddie with Christian Wood out due to fractured thumb. Wood has scored at least 22 points in 5 of the last 6 games. In 4 games without Wood this season, Dinwiddie had 34, 39, 26 and 30 points + assists. Dinwiddie has been inconsistent, but played better recently. He has scored 20, 28 and 25 points over the last 3 games. The Mavericks guard has gone over this line in 3 straight games and 4 of the last 6. The Heat have allowed the 3rd-most threes to shooting guards over the last 15 games. Miami is allowing opponents to shoot 36.3% from 3-point range — which is 5th worst in the NBA.
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