The NBA play-ins conclude on Friday night. To begin the days games the Chicago Bulls will be traveling to take on the Miami Heat on TNT. The winner of this one will then take on the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Out west, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be up against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The winner will face off against the Denver Nuggets.
Check out our NBA predictions and my favorite player props for tonight’s games below.
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Nikola Vucevic, CHI, Over 10.5 rebounds (-115)
In 3 games against the Miami Heat this season, Nikola Vucevic has been controlling the boards. He has averaged 13 a night against the Heat, up from his season average of 11. Look for the same to continue tonight. He will be up against Bam Adebayo, whose jump shot cannot pull an opponent out to the perimeter. It should allow Vucevic to maintain great rebounding position throughout the night. On the season the Heat are just 18th in the league in rebounding percentage and have not been dominant on that front. Both offenses struggled in their first play-in games, failing to surpass the 110-mark. Expect the same to continue, helping ensure there are plenty of boards for Vucevic to chase down.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC, Over 33.5 points (-110)
Over the last 5 games Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30 or more points on 4 occasions. Twice he came just a point shy of 40. With OKC’s season on the line and SGA likely seeing more than 40 minutes of playing time here, he will have a great chance to put together a big scoring night. He has enjoyed playing against the Timberwolves this season, able to increase his shooting percentages across the board compared to his season averages in the games against them.
Of the current Timberwolves starters, Mike Conley has the worst defensive rating. That should make him a target and someone the Thunder could look to attack in isolation. With Rudy Gobert also potentially sidelined, Conley is unlikely to get much help if he gets beaten. Dennis Schroder dropped 21 points in the last Timberwolves game, up from his season average of 12.6. Gilgeous-Alexander could see a similar jump on his season average of 31.4 ppg.
Alex Caruso, CHI, Over 1.5 steals (+170)
So far this season Alex Caruso is averaging 2 steals per game against Miami. He has been able to hit the over on this line in 2 of the 3 contests against them. Considering that he is likely to see a larger role tonight as he picks up Tyler Herro, he should have enough time to rack up a couple of steals. The Heat guard will likely play a bigger role as a playmaker — something he is not very efficient at doing. In his last game against the Hawks, he turned the ball over 4 times — half of all of the Heat’s turnovers. I expect Caruso to be able to pick his pocket and force him into a couple more tonight.
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