Filip Tomic
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I was very close to landing my +1200 odds first-basket scorer prediction in last night’s Lakers vs Nuggets game, but Austin Reaves couldn’t connect on his 3-point shot. That shouldn’t discourage us from having another go at it in tonight’s Game 1 of the Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics series though!
Make sure you have our NBA predictions bookmarked, as we will have picks on the side and total for every single East and West Conference Finals game. Let’s take a look at my bet now!
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Heat vs Celtics first-basket scorer best bet: Jaylen Brown (+440)
My dilemma was between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for this pick, as both of them averaged over 30 points per game against Miami during the regular season, and each of them scored the first basket once in those games. Al Horford won 2 of 3 opening tips against Bam Adebayo in games in which Robert Williams was absent, but the big man is now back and has a 91% opening-tip win rate, so I really like his chances to grab the opening possessions for the Celtics.
Boston has relied on Brown quite a lot during this postseason run and he has scored the opening bucket for them in 6 of 13 games, edging out Tatum, who has done it 5 times. Brown was also a lot more efficient in those regular-season games against Miami – 10.6% better from the field, 1.3% better from three and 3.6% better from the free-throw line. If we look at a larger sample size over the last 2 seasons, Boston has scored the first basket in 10 of 14 games against the Heat. With 39% of Miami’s first baskets allowed coming from the SG and SF positions, backing Brown looks like a solid bet in this one.
Check out our full game preview for Game 1 of Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
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