Andrew Ortenberg
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We’re on to the last game of the season. It’s been a wild ride, and we all can’t wait for Super Bowl 56. The days are flying by before the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Los Angeles Rams for all the marbles, and the biggest betting event of the year is right around the corner. There are more ways to bet on the game than you could possibly count, and one of the most fun ways to partake is by betting player props. Practically every guy on each roster will have prop markets available, and today we’ll be talking about one of the more higher profile ones. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Let’s dive in, but first check out our Super Bowl hub for everything you need to get you primed.
Matthew Stafford under 281.5 passing yards (-110)
Anything related to Los Angeles’ signal-caller is available to be bet on here. There are over/unders set for just about everything including his passing yards (281.5), rushing yards (5.5), completions (24.5) and pass attempts (36.5). And that’s not all, you can also bet on stuff like how long his longest completion will be (O/U 39.5 yards).
After poring over all the markets, the one I like best is the under on his passing yards. FanDuel has this line set at 281.5, and that’s just a bit too high for me. Stafford went over this total in the Divisional Round and in the NFC Championship Game, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Both Tampa Bay and San Francisco are extremely difficult to run on, which meant the Rams naturally passed the ball a lot more. The playbook was opened up and Stafford was told to let it rip. But that’s not always the game-plan.
In the first round against the Cardinals, the Rams instead relied on their run game and defense, and Stafford finished with only 201 yards in that one. I think this game is going to follow a much more similar game-script to that one than to their last two. It’s why I’m on the under for the full game as well.
Los Angeles’ defense is uniquely well-suited to slow down this Bengals passing attack, since their ferocious pass-rush should have a field day against Cincy’s weak offensive line. If the Rams’ defense is playing well, then Sean McVay will be content to play things a bit more conservatively on offense. Cincinnati’s defense is also a lot more susceptible to the run than the 49ers or Buccaneers are, so expect to see a heavy dose of Cam Akers in this one.
Oddsmakers have the Rams as solid 4-point favorites in this game, so they project to have a lead in the second half that they’ll be looking to sit on. The Bengals also just don’t get enough credit for how well their secondary has played at times. Last week they completely shut down Patrick Mahomes, limiting him to only 55 yards in the second half and overtime. The stakes don’t get any higher than in the Super Bowl, and both passing games could find themselves bogging down a bit with the added intensity.
Don’t be swayed by Stafford’s last couple of games, 281.5 is a lot for a game like this.
Be sure to check out our full Super Bowl 56 preview for Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals
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