Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The series is now tied 1-1 after the Miami Heat proved once again that nothing about this postseason run makes sense. Despite being outscored in the paint and out rebounded, Miami shot 48% from 3P range and closed the 4th quarter with 36 points on only 16 FGA. For Denver, Jokic scored 41 points and the rest of the team struggled to get going offensively. Jokic’s FG attempts exploded in the 1st and 3rd quarters, which conveniently matched when Cody Zeller was on the floor.
I expect Zeller’s minutes to get cut and Mike Malone to run more “horns” in their offensive sets that Denver got away from in Game 2 after so much success in Game 1. The biggest adjustment for Miami was Kevin Love. Love guarded Aaron Gordon, preventing him from getting easy post-ups and keeping Bam Adebayo on Jokic, allowing Jimmy Butler to guard Jamal Murray. This through off Denver’s offense heavily to start the game.
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Jimmy Butler under 32.5 points + rebounds (-113)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Butler is still reeling from that ankle injury. He just doesn’t look right to me and hasn’t hit this line in either game. The big adjustment in Game 2 of injecting Kevin Love into the lineup, moved Butler onto Jamal Murray and was met with success. I expect this to continue, but putting Butler on Murray pulls him away from the basket and will limit his rebound opportunities. From a scoring perspective, Butler has not been able to get his easy baskets around the rim and in post-up situations like he has in other series. A big reason for that is Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are above average, lengthy defenders and the other I believe is Butler’s nagging ankle injury. This offense is running through Bam Adebayo high screens and finding the open man on the perimeter. 1U from me.
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Bruce Brown over 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Brown is a wildcard heading into Game 3. He jumped +7 minutes from Game 1 to Game 2 and hit this line in the game with fewer minutes surprisingly. Brown is averaging 18 PRA this postseason and hit this line in 4/6 when playing 27 minutes or more; also hit this in 12/17 all postseason. I like Brown to be on the floor a lot in Game 3, and Zeller’s minutes expected to be cut will reflect even more small ball from Miami. It will be a lot to ask a rookie to play 15+min again on the road in the Finals. Outside of Braun, the only other bench player is Jeff Green, and Malone is going no more than 8 deep. This is a must win for Denver, so I’m expecting a more restricted rotation depending on foul trouble. 1U
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Duncan Robinson over 1.5 3-pointers made (-120)
Line available on Caesars sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Robinson was the hero of Game 2, scoring all 10 points in the 4Q and completing flipping the momentum. He’s quietly hit this line in 4 of the last 5 games and 5 of 8 games at home this postseason. Robinson is averaging 5.7 3PA at home vs 4.5 on the road and getting that extra attempt will help us greatly. Robinson’s ability to cut and get open off of screens is one of the best in the league and will be on display Wednesday night. Denver heading into the series only contested 13.3% of 3P shots in the Conference Finals: hand down, man down. 1U
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Michael Porter Jr. over 0.5 blocks (+124)
Line available on FanDuel sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mike Malone took subtle jabs at MPJ in the postgame presser after an awful performance in Game 2 at home. Porter Jr had his minutes cut after missing several defensive assignments and overlooking Jokic/Murray for an easy bucket to force a tough shot. Luckily, MPJ plays his best basketball on the road for the playoffs. He’s hit this line in 5/7 road games this postseason and had 2 blocks in Game 1 of the series. I expect MPJ to get back in Mike Malone’s good graces by locking in defensively and hitting his open looks. 1U
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