Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Does Miami have any magic left in the tank? Game 5 is back in Denver as the Nuggets (-8.5) are up 3-1 following their third double-digit victory of the series. The thought process should be simple for bettors’ pickings sides: If you like the Nuggets, give the -8.5 points. If you like Miami, take them on the money line (+310). My prediction heading into the series was Nuggets in 4 or 5 and I’m confident our NBA 2022-2023 season ends on Monday night.
Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown were the next guys up in the for Denver; the previous winner was Christian Braun. All the talking heads in sports are calling Jokic/Murray the new generation’s version of Shaq/Kobe and I’d have to agree. For the Heat to extend the series, they will need to generate more open 3-point shots (like the 46 they attempted in Game 2). I would not be surprised if Miami pulls off the upset, but if Denver can weather an early storm from the Heat, they should pull away in the 2nd half.
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Michael Porter Jr. over 11.5 points (+102)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
There was a conscious effort in Game 4 to get Michael Porter Jr. involved in the Denver offense. Unfortunately, he went 0-4 in the first quarter and finished 4/6 the rest of the way. MPJ has been the biggest disappointment of the Finals for this Nuggets team, but we’re getting this line at plus-money odds and it’s still well under his playoff average of 13.2 points per game and playoff home average of 13.7 ppg. This has a 57% hit rate at 49.5% implied probability so I’m taking the value and expecting Malone to continue to force MPJ early in the game in hopes of getting him in a rhythm. 1U
Kevin Love over 1.5 three-pointers made (+100)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This has hit in every game this series for Kevin Love, and we’re still getting even money on this play. I’ll take the bait. Sprinkle in the fact that Love missed the flight to Denver for Game 5 to witness his first child being born and I think we have outside motivating factor for what could be Love’s last game of his career. I wish there was more to this analysis other than we’re getting great value on a play with a 100% hit rate in this series and it would help Miami to increase their ball movement to find more open threes. 1U
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Same Game Parlay (+7302 odds!)
If the season ends Monday, let’s have one last lotto for the road…
- Michael Porter Jr. 15+ points
- Kevin Love 3+ 3-pointers made
- Caleb Martin 2+ 3-pointers made
- Gabe Vincent 10+ points
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