Filip Tomic
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The Denver Nuggets are on the verge of capturing their first ever NBA championship as they host the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals at Ball Arena on Monday night. We were able to land a +550 odds first basket scorer pick in Game 3, as Bam Adebayo opened the scoring. So why not try our luck once more as the series shifts back to Denver?
You can watch Monday’s game live on ABC at 8:30 pm ET, but without further ado let’s jump into my bet for Game 5.
Heat vs Nuggets: Aaron Gordon (+950)
Miami has dominated the opening tip in his series, winning 3 straight after Jokic won the tip in the series opener. Adebayo has had the Joker’s number, winning 5 of the last 8 tips between the 2 big men over the last 2 seasons. Scoring the first basket hasn’t yielded the results the Heat have hoped for this season in head-to-head meetings. They have done it in 4 of the 6 games played but have only 1 win to show for so far.
With the series shifting back to Denver for Game 5 and the magnitude of the moment for the Nuggets being massive, I’m going to give the edge to Jokic to win the opening tip. His 48% win rate of opening tips isn’t elite, but I just feel like with the crowd behind them, the Nuggets will have the momentum in this game.
And speaking of momentum, Aaron Gordon has had plenty of it in Game 4; he was the best player for Denver, leading the way with 27 points in what was his best game of the series so far. If head coach Michael Malone is smart, he will want to get him started off well early. We all saw the impact he had on the game with his 11-for-15 shooting from the field.
So far this season Gordon has attempted the first shot for his team in 20% of the games he’s played in. Only Murray and Jokic are ahead of him in that department. He has made 21% of his team’s first field goals. Only Murray (22%) and Jokic are higher up (31%). Miami’s defense has allowed the first field goal to come from the center and power forward positions 47% of the time this season, so I have a feeling it’ll be either Jokic or Gordon to start off the Nuggets in this game. At +950 odds, I just cannot resist backing Gordon.
Read our Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets predictions
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