Adam Ronis
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There are 11 games to place wagers on in the NBA on Wednesday night. Five have a line of 3 points or less and 2 have double-digit lines. Four games have a total of at least 230 points. As always, stay up to date on the latest injury news since lines can change. Bets may be added throughout the day if additional spots arise, so be sure to check back later in the day. My record is 81-60-1 for the season. Here are my picks for tonight.
Davion Mitchell over 28.5 points + assists (-120 at BetMGM)
Davion Mitchell has seen a huge uptick in usage rate and minutes with DeAaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis out. Over the last 4 games, Mitchell has played 46, 38, 45 and 41 minutes. In those games, Mitchell has 28 points and 9 assists, 25 points and 7 assists, 22 points and 9 assists and 21 points and 9 assists to go over this total each time. He is averaging 24 points and 8.5 assists in those games. Two of those matchups were against the Suns and Heat, both of whom are top 6 in defensive efficiency. Mitchell gets the Rockets, who are 29th in defensive efficiency and 1st in pace. The Kings are 6th in pace, so there should be plenty of points in the game and Mitchell can play a key role in keeping the scoreboard moving.
Aaron Gordon over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at BetMGM)
Aaron Gordon has easily surpassed this total in 4 straight games and in 5 of the last 6. In the games that he topped the total, he played at least 30 minutes. Gordon’s PRA totals in those 4 games are 29, 27, 30 and 31. It’s a favorable matchup for him against Indiana, which ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and has allowed at least 131 points in 3 straight games.
LaMelo Ball over 3.5 three-pointers (+140 at DraftKings)
The Knicks struggle to defend point guards and allow 36.9 3-pointers per game, which is 7th-worst in the NBA. New York allows the 3rd-most points to point guards and the 8th-most 3-pointers. Ball faced the Knicks last week at home and shot 6-for-14 from beyond the arc. He has hit at least 4 3-pointers in 7 of his last 8 games and has attempted 43 shots from beyond the arc in the last 4 games. Getting this at plus-money makes it a good bet.
Jalen Green over 2.5 three-pointers (-130 at Caesars)
Green is finishing his rookie season strongly. He is averaging 20.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while shooting 48.4% from the field, including 39.3% from 3-point range in March. Green has hit at least 3 3-pointers in 4 of his last 5 games. Over the last 3, Green has hit 5, 6 and 6 treys. Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder and Eric Gordon are out tonight and the Kings are 29th in opponent 3-point percentage (37%) and 28th in defensive efficiency. Green’s point prop of 20.5 points is also appealing.
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