Filip Tomic
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Regardless of who ends up lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy, it will be a historic achievement for either one of the two franchises. The Denver Nuggets booked a place in the NBA Finals for the first time ever, while the Miami Heat became only the 2nd-ever 8th seed in NBA history to reach the grand finale after the New York Knicks did it back in the 1998-99 season. Make sure you have our NBA Predictions page bookmarked for picks on the side and total for every single upcoming NBA Finals game.
Game 1 tips off Thursday at 8:30 pm ET on ABC, so let’s break down both teams’ strengths and weaknesses as we predict the outcome of the 2023 NBA Finals.
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Denver Nuggets odds to win NBA Finals: (-480)
The Nuggets are overwhelming favorites to win the NBA Finals and they will enter Thursday’s series opener on a run of 6 straight victories and a 4-2 record against the spread. Denver has the home-court advantage in the series and should be ready to go, as they will have had 9 days of rest since their series against the Lakers ended.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray played exceptionally well as a duo, lifting the Nuggets whenever one or the other was in foul trouble or struggling to make plays. Jokic dominated the 2 regular-season meetings and after winning the Western Conference Finals MVP award, he is the odds-on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP at -330 odds.
The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 SU at Ball Arena this postseason, and they’re tied with the Golden State Warriors for most covers in home games at 30-18-1 ATS. Head-to-head it’s been all Denver in the last 10 meetings, as they’ve won 9 of them while covering the spread in as many games.
Miami Heat odds to win NBA Finals: (+330)
Being an underdog is nothing new for the Miami Heat — they’ve been in this situation for the majority of this postseason run and they’re looking to make history and become the first team ever to win the NBA title as the lowest seed. After a grueling series against the Boston Celtics and a big win in Game 7, the Heat will head into Denver brimming with confidence for the first 2 games even if they’ve gotten swept in the last 3 regular seasons by them.
A lot is expected out of Jimmy Butler once again, but this Miami team has 6 players averaging 10 or more points so their role players shouldn’t be underestimated. The likes of Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus and others are capable of going off at any given moment and that is the biggest strength of this team. In order for Miami to win this series, they will need to win at least 1 road game, so if you fancy them to win in 6 games you can get really good odds at +700. Or if you think the series will go the distance and Miami wins in 7 games you can get a staggering +850 odds.
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2023 NBA Finals Series Prediction: Denver Nuggets to win 4-2 (+400)
Having already been to the NBA Finals back in 2020, I’d give a slight edge to Miami as far as experience goes. But Denver is no stranger to big games either, as they’ve been to the Western Conference Finals in the bubble. The Nuggets are the more talented team, health is on their side and they also have the best player in the series. Miami has shown a lot of resilience all season long, but this is just a bad matchup for them. I’m not sure if Bam Adebayo can handle Jokic as he’s giving up a ton of size against him and the Joker averaged a triple-double in 2 regular season meetings against Miami. It’s never easy betting against the Heat, but I’m taking the Nuggets to win the series in 6 games.
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