San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/19/25

Back-to-back defeats vs Memphis at home have put the San Antonio Spurs in a difficult spot. They are just 1-5 ATS/SU in their last 6 games, not a good sign when you’re going up against a Miami team that’s pretty much owned you in the past 8 meetings. During this stretch the Spurs have just 1 win vs Miami, they’ve also lost 4 times in their last 5 visits to South Beach. Can they turn things around? It’ll depend on the productivity of Victor Wembanyama. So far the month of January has not been kind to the French phenom, his scoring is down by more than 8 points per game with his efficiency suffering as well. He does have the size advantage over Bam Adebayo here, perhaps he can use that to his advantage?

Things aren’t clicking for Miami either at the moment. They just suffered their 3rd straight defeat, at the hands of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Jimmy Butler returned after serving a 7-game suspension with 18 points, far too little to have an impact on the game. Miami gave up 35 assists to the Nuggets which just tells us the effort wasn’t there. Playing a less talented team like the Spurs should be beneficial, however we need to ask ourselves can we really trust a team that’s covered the spread just 8 times in 18 home games?

San Antonio’s defense is a concern here, over their last 5 games they are giving up 120.2 points per 100 possessions. They like to play fast, which is one of the reasons why they are leaking points all over the place. San Antonio averages 100.6 possessions per game which ranks them in the top 10 in pace. They’ve allowed 120+ points in 3 of their last 5, I think we’re in for a high scoring game here. Miami has gone over the total in 4 of 5 at home, make it 5 out of 6 on Sunday.

Spurs vs Heat Predictions: Over 219.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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