Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/23/25

The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing and Sunday’s card features a couple of compelling matchups, including the Oklahoma City Thunder facing off against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ordinarily, I would look to back the Timberwolves at home as three-possession underdogs, especially considering the Thunder are off a blowout win over the Utah Jazz on Friday and have won 8 of their last 10 games. It also helps that Minnesota just thoroughly outplayed Oklahoma City in the final game before the All-Star break, giving the Thunder a nice revenge angle from a disappointing game that should be fresh in the minds of every player on the roster. Even though Minnesota has been playing better basketball of late, I still want no part of stepping in front of the best team in the Western Conference in this spot. My decision has been made easier by the fact that Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are expected to miss this game, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if this line got to double digits by tip-off. 

It didn’t feel like the prettiest game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Friday against Utah, and he still managed to finish with 21 points and 8 assists on nearly 50% from the field. There is room for that performance to be replicated against a Minnesota defensive scheme that will be happy to play some drop coverage without Gobert’s rim protection, which should allow Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the Oklahoma City guards to take lightly contested midrange shots from inside of 15 feet. On the other side, the elite Thunder defense could have a field day against a Wolves team that doesn’t shoot the ball well, is 25th in turnover percentage and 26th in pace for the season. I don’t doubt that the Timberwolves will try and limit the number of transition opportunities for Oklahoma City in this game, but the Thunder are still an outstanding halfcourt unit on both ends of the floor, and they should feel extremely comfortable operating at a slower pace in this one. Oklahoma City is covering the spread at nearly a 64% clip as a road favorite, while the Thunder are also covering the number at just over a 73% clip with equal rest. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Oklahoma City played a focused, consistent game and won by margin on the road in this spot.  

Oklahoma City vs Minnesota prediction: Thunder -9 available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5

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