Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 04/26/25

We might be heading towards our first sweep of the 2025 NBA Playoffs on Saturday as the OKC Thunder look to put the final nail in the coffin of the Memphis Grizzlies’ season. Memphis came out with a ton of energy in Game 3 and led by as many as 29 points, but the Thunder showed us why they finished the regular season 68-14 by coming back and winning 114-108. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again had an inefficient shooting game, but he did finish with 31 points to lead all scorers. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams each had 20+ to help out and now the Thunder are looking to sweep. Thursday’s win was their 7th in a row this season over the Grizz, but the first by single digits.

Ja Morant’s hip injury might have something to do with the Thunder rallying back from that massive deficit. He left the game with 3 minutes left in the first half after a nasty fall and his team put up just 31 points total over the final 24 minutes of play. With his status up in the air the Grizzlies are now 14.5-point underdogs with their season on the line. So far in 32 games he’s missed, Memphis has won 18 games and lost 14, which makes them a .563 pace win team. It is interesting to note that the offensive rating takes a jump from 117.6 with Morant to 119.9 without him in the lineup. Obviously, the Grizzlies are not the same team when their best player doesn’t play, so that could just be an indicator that they play at a much faster pace, sacrificing effort on the defensive end.

Closeout games are never easy to win, especially on the road. But, the Thunder have owned this matchup the entire year and are currently on a run of 12 wins in a row against Memphis stretching back to the 2022-23 season. I have OKC winning, but the spread looks a tad too high so let’s pivot to the points with the expectation that the Grizzlies won’t go down without a fight.

Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 4 prediction: Over 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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