Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/24/25

OKC Thunder -8.5 over Memphis Grizzlies (-110)

The 2-0 advantage that the Thunder currently own is something from which the Grizzlies almost certainly cannot come back from. Oklahoma City dominated 131-80 in Game 1 before coasting to a 118-99 victory on Tuesday. The fashion in which the Thunder have prevailed is easily repeatable, too. They won the battle of the boards 54-43 in the series opener and 55-42 in Game 2. The Grizzlies got blown out again on Tuesday even though their shooting improved dramatically. It’s not like Memphis is going to have some kind of overwhelming home-court advantage in Game 3, either. Everyone knows this series is basically over — including Grizzlies fans. The atmosphere is unlikely to be rocking, especially if the Thunder get off to a hot start.

Moreover, OKC compiled an amazing 32-8 road record during the regular season. Although this is far from a must-win situation for the Thunder, motivation should remain high because they want to close out this series as quickly as possible and rest up for what should be a more competitive 7-game set against either the Nuggets or Clippers. OKC dominated the first 2 contests even though soon-to-be NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t even go off. Jalen Williams has scored at least 20 points in 8 of the last 10 games since returning from a 2-week absence in late March. This team is a juggernaut and will likely roll again by double-digits in Game 3.

Desmond Bane 3+ made threes (-152)

As is the case with most role players, I expect Desmond Bane to step up as this series moves to Memphis for the next 2 games. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are the 2 stars on this team and they are likely to get their numbers, but Bane’s contribution could be vital if the Grizzlies are to make this game interesting. His three-point shooting has been very reliable this season, especially in home games where he makes 40.6% of his shots. He’s currently on a streak of 3 consecutive home games with at least 3 threes made, which gives me confidence he can achieve that feat yet again tonight.

Over his last 8 games at FedEx Forum in the regular season, Bane has cleared this line 6 times while shooting over 49%. OKC did a solid job on him in the first 2 games of this series, but over the past 10 meetings he’s still averaging 2.7 makes from three against them on solid 37.5% shooting. Game 3 will be nothing like the first 2 games from a standpoint of the Grizzlies’ pace, as we saw in the play-in tournament they’re way more comfortable playing fast in their own building. That should ensure Bane gets plenty of looks from three so let’s hope he can knock down a few shots.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ made threes (-180)

This series has been an odd one for SGA, who hasn’t really had a good time in either of the 2 games played in Oklahoma City. That in itself is very unusual for a player who averaged 36.3 points on 53.7% shooting from the field and 41.2% from three in the four meetings against Memphis during the regular season. A player of his caliber cannot continue playing this badly for long and Game 3 would be an ideal spot for a bounce-back performance as he leads the Thunder to a crucial win in a hostile environment.

Despite Gilgeous-Alexander’s sub-par shooting, he was still able to clear this line in Game 2, going 3-for-10 from three en route to 27 points. That means he has now scored multiple threes in 15 of his last 20 games if we include the regular season. For a bet that cashes 75% of the time, we are getting a very solid -180 odds here, so I am all over adding this to our Thunder vs Grizzlies Same Game Parlay.