Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 01/17/25

It’s a quick turnaround for the OKC Thunder, who are in Dallas on Friday night — less than 24 hours following their 134-114 demolition of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming for that MVP; he delivered a 40-piece with 8 assists in just 29 mins on the court. None of the OKC starters logged more than 30 minutes, as the game was pretty much in the books at halftime. That means they won’t be affected too much ahead of tonight’s game vs the struggling Mavs. The Thunder have covered the spread in 12 of 18 meetings, including 7 of 9 on the road in Dallas.

The Mavs have dropped 3 in a row and their latest defeat was an ugly one against the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Kyrie Irving has been in and out of the lineup, struggling with a back injury. Luka Doncic hasn’t played in a while, so the Mavs are just trying to survive at this point. They are 2-8 SU over their last 10 games, while covering only once in those 10 games. Their offensive rating ranks only 25th during this stretch; on defense they are slightly better in 20th. One thing the Mavs have done well over their last 3 games is perimeter defense – with opponents shooting just 33% from 3 against them. However, they are leaking points on the inside; for the season Dallas ranks 6th worst in opponent points per game in the paint.

Last night’s game was emotionally draining for the Thunder, but they have been playing so well this year that I’m not convinced that’ll have a negative effect. They won the last meeting with Dallas by 14 points and are outscoring them by almost 7 points per game over the last 10 meetings. Until the Mavs get their stars back, I’m not touching them.

Thunder vs Mavericks prediction: Oklahoma City -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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