Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/23/25

Miami was a bit unlucky with the timing of Game 1 as they had to play 2 high-intensity games during the week to even qualify for the postseason, while the Cavs rested for a whole week. The Heat just ran out of energy in the 4th quarter, which they lost 34-21, to fall 121-100 in the end. With 2 full days in between games, I expect a much better performance in Game 2 from Miami, but that alone doesn’t guarantee they will get anything out of Wednesday’s game. First, they have to sort out their coverages on defense, especially around the three-point line, as the Cavs knocked down 18 threes on almost 42% efficiency. Plus, head coach Erik Spoelstra has to do a much better job at hiding Tyler Herro on defense, as the Cavaliers went after him relentlessly, which resulted in 3 backcourt players combining for 85 points.

The Cavs did exactly what was expected of them, successfully limiting their turnovers to just 8, winning the rebounding battle and shooting the ball at an efficient rate. That is the recipe that will get this team to the Conference Finals in the East. The question is whether they can sustain that level of effort over the next month or so. We now have 83 games of proof that they can, but despite that, there should be no room for complacency ahead of an all-important Game 2 on Wednesday. Ty Jerome stole the show, scoring 28 points in his first-ever postseason game, which helped the Cavs overcome a donut by the usually reliable De’Andre Hunter coming off the bench. DPOY candidate Evan Mobley had only 9 points and 7 rebounds and he too has to improve on offense if the Cavaliers are to double their lead here.

I’m expecting a much better Miami team in Game 2, particularly on offense. Cleveland won’t mind running with the Heat as that’s a battle they should win easily if they once again take care of the basketball and knock down their threes. The series opener saw 221 total points, cashing the over easily. I expect more of the same on Wednesday, so let’s double down on the points in Game 2.

Heat vs Cavaliers prediction: Over 214.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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