Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 03/05/25

Miami Heat +11.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers (-112)

Miami has struggled a bit in the post-Jimmy Butler era, but they’ve slowly turned things around and have won 3 of 4 games. They are massive underdogs against a Cavaliers team that’s playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back here, and with the Heat already winning one of the meetings earlier this season, I believe Miami has massive value as a double-digit underdog.

Cleveland is on a roll, having won 11 in a row, but we did see them struggle in this scenario over the weekend against the Trail Blazers, with the Cavs eventually beating Portland by 4 points in overtime. The head-to-head stats are mostly in Miami’s favor – over the past 7 meetings they’re 5-2 SU/ATS, plus they’ve won in 7 of their last 10 visits to Cleveland. I’m not saying the Heat will pick up the victory, but they have the tools to make a game out of it. I’ll take Miami to cover the spread for the 5th time in 6 games to kickstart our Heat vs Cavaliers Same Game Parlay.

Tyler Herro 3+ made threes (-225)

For the Heat to stay competitive in this contest, they need a big game from Tyler Herro and I’m counting on him to deliver. He has had the steady hand lately, clearing this line in 6 of 8 games, including 3 of his last 4. Herro is one of the rare players on an NBA team who has the ultimate green light as far as three-point shooting goes. We’ve seen him attempt double-digit threes 4 times over the last 8 games, including 14 shots against the Mavericks on the road.

Herro’s numbers from the last 5 meetings with the Cavs have been truly remarkable – he’s averaging 4.2 threes per game on 52.5% efficiency and has cleared this line every single time. Cleveland ranks just 16th in opponent three-point efficiency this season, allowing teams to shoot 35.8% against them. This is obviously a matchup that suits him, so I expect solid production from beyond the arc.

Donovan Mitchell to score 20+ points (-320)

Scoring 20 points has been a breeze for Donovan Mitchell and he has failed to do so only once over his last 10 games, which came against a Magic team where he played just 23 minutes. Last night, Mitchell scored 28 on the Bulls in 28 minutes played, which came a game after he torched the defending champion Celtics for 41 in a massive road win.

In head-to-head meetings with the Heat, Mitchell has also put up big numbers, averaging 25.1 points per game in the last 10 while clearing this line 3 times in 4 games against Miami. The last time he faced the Heat, Mitchell finished with 34 and 6 assists. With players like Nikola Jovic and Andrew Wiggins potentially missing this game, Mitchell should have an easier time doing damage here, so I expect an easy 20 from him.

Evan Mobley to record 8+ rebounds (-235)

Evan Mobley missed the game against the Bulls on Tuesday, which should give him fresh legs for this matchup against Bam Adebayo and the Heat. We’ve seen this method quite a few times from the Cavaliers, who have given each of their starters nights off during the regular season as part of their load management scheme. Mobley has been very productive on the glass over the past 2 months or so. His average has gone up from 7.9 in December to 10.1 in both January and February. Right now, he’s on a run of 8 consecutive games with at least 8 rebounds, while in 5 of those games, he went on to record double-digits.

Miami is one of the lowest rebounding teams in the NBA, recording 51.4 a night which ranks them 23rd in the NBA. The Heat also record just 9.6 offensive rebounds per game, which is the 5th-lowest mark in the league, so we shouldn’t have to worry about Mobley getting the job done on the defensive end here. Let’s take a productive night from Mobley on the glass to wrap up our Heat vs Cavaliers Same Game Parlay.