Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 04/18/25

Miami surprised a lot of people by not just winning their play-in game against Chicago, but in the manner in which they did so. They held one of the most prolific offenses in the NBA to just 90 points and under 40% shooting from the field and just 27% from three. That performance reminded us of the good old days when the Heat were a tough nut to crack on defense. I expect a similar approach in Friday’s game against Atlanta, especially against star player Trae Young, whom the Heat have been able to contain fairly well over the past 5 meetings. The 2 teams did split the 4 regular-season meetings, but the Heat won the 2 most recent ones by double digits.

Scoring just 95 points against the Magic was a huge disappointment for the Hawks, who once again were exposed on the defensive end. It’s no secret that Young is a defensive liability, and Cole Anthony came off the bench for Orlando and with a couple of others went at Young relentlessly, which just added to the frustration of the Hawks star. Atlanta also allowed 58 points in the paint in the loss, which isn’t a good look going up against Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 21.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game over his last 10 outings. Atlanta did finish the year with a positive record at home and that’ll be the one thing they’ll be relying on in Friday’s game.

I hope this doesn’t come back to bite me, but I was really impressed by what the Heat showed on Wednesday. Apart from Young, Atlanta is lacking the necessary experience in big moments. The Heat have already been in situations like this before, so even though they are on the road here I give them a slight edge in this win-or-go-home matchup.

Heat vs Hawks prediction: Heat +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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