Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 04/22/25

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ made threes (-180)

Believe it or not, SGA had his worst shooting performance of the entire season in the series opener against the Grizzlies, as he went just 4-for-13 from the field and made just 1 of 7 three-point attempts. The Thunder still won by 51 points, which just shows how talented and deep this team really is. I’m looking at the likely regular-season MVP to bounce back here, especially when it comes to shooting the ball.

His three-ball has made a huge leap in efficiency compared to previous years, going from 35.3% in 2023-24 to 37.5% this season, which is his 2nd-most efficient season shooting the three-point shot. He also finished the season averaging a career-high 2.1 makes per game from downtown, while in his last 20 games, he’s cleared this line 15 times. The Grizzlies’ defense in that series opener was a complete mess, as the Thunder players attempted 48 threes while making 17 of them. It’s hard to imagine all of their flaws will be fixed just 2 days later, so I’m expecting SGA to leave his mark on this game. He’s cleared this line twice in the last 4 meetings — make it 3 times in 5 tonight.

Ja Morant to record a double-double (+550)

There’s no other way of saying it, the Grizzlies got absolutely destroyed in the series opener over the weekend and now it’s time for them to respond. They were on the back end of the 5th-largest margin of victory in NBA postseason history, and if that doesn’t light a fire under the likes of Ja Morant and company then I don’t know what will. Morant played just 26 minutes in that game, recording a pedestrian 17 points and just 4 assists. After the game he said “we’ll never play this bad again” and now it is time to back up those words.

On paper, this bet might look like a long shot at +550 odds, but when you think about it it’s not that unrealistic at all. Morant can score at least 10 points in his sleep, so it all comes down to him getting his teammates involved. He was close to getting 10 assists in the play-in win over Dallas but the meter stopped at 9 with him logging 33 minutes of play. The last time he made the postseason with this team, Morant had a pair of double-doubles in the first-round series against the Lakers back in 2022-23. The season before that, the Grizz went up against Minnesota in the first round and Morant had 5 double-doubles in 6 games.

This is the moment of truth for the Grizzlies, as keeping things close or somehow getting a win here would do wonders for their confidence with the series moving to Memphis for the next 2 games. I expect Morant to show up in a big way here.