Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 04/28/25

Game 4 of this Western Conference opening-round series between Steph Curry and the veteran Warriors against the feisty, young and inexperienced Rockets should be an excellent contest, much like what we saw in the first 3 games. So far, this series has adhered to the Zig-Zag Theory, in which the momentum shifts between the home and road teams based on how each performed in the previous game. The idea is that each game in a playoff series is affected by the result of the game that preceded it, which is exactly how every game in this series has gone. It just so happens that I’m going right back to the well with that pattern in Game 4, as I’ll be backing the Rockets to even the series at 2-2 following their defeat on Saturday.

While it was the veteran savvy of the Warriors (and elite shotmaking from Curry down the stretch) that ultimately proved to be the difference in Game 3, I’m expecting a massive bounce-back effort from Houston to even up the series at Chase Center. The Rockets’ shooting woes plagued them again in Game 3, as Houston wasted a chance to take the lead in the series against a Warriors team that was without Jimmy Butler. Houston has been known to fall into prolonged shooting droughts, and that was certainly the case on Saturday, as the Rockets registered just 44 points in the second half of Game 3. Houston shot below 40 percent from the field, had 14 turnovers and was just 14-24 from free-throw line. Despite all of that, Golden State needed an all-time playoff performance from Curry to erase a double-digit Rockets lead en route to a victory. In fact, even with their struggles offensively, there were things Houston did that can certainly be replicated in this matchup, most importantly by dominating the offensive glass. If the Rockets are able to consistently generate a massive edge in the shot-volume department, it’s reasonable to suggest that some of the shots from their supporting cast will start falling and the offense will develop a rhythm.

On the other side, we know Curry is fantastic, but while Butler is cleared to play in this game, I can’t imagine that he will get much run in this matchup given his injury and the Warriors likely wanting to save him for a potentially series-deciding Game 5. Even if Butler does play extended minutes, I can’t imagine that he and Curry will combine for 55 or more points once again in this game. With Golden State’s clear lack of an edge in the paint and on the glass, I’m expecting a hard-nosed, physical game script — one that favors a desperate Houston team in a desperate spot. Let’s take the Rockets to win as short underdogs on the road. 

Rockets vs Warriors prediction: Rockets ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable to +140.

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