Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/26/25

Game 3 of this Western Conference opening round series between Steph Curry and the veteran Warriors against the feisty, young and inexperienced Rockets should be a gritty, physical contest, much like what we saw in the first couple of games. However, while I was all over the Rockets in Game 2, I’m expecting a bounce-back effort from the Warriors at home on Saturday. Even factoring in that home court bump, I just can’t get there with Golden State given the uncertain status of Jimmy Butler. With that in mind, I’m going to stay away from taking a side and instead, I’ll back the under for a third straight game in this series. 

For starters, Houston has been known to fall into prolonged shooting droughts, and that was certainly the case in Game 1, as the Rockets shot below 40 percent from the field and finished just 6-29 (20.7%) from beyond the arc. Despite the fact that Houston bounced back from its shooting woes in a major way in Game 2, with both teams combining for 32 made threes, and the game still went under the closing total. There’s no reason not to expect more of the same here, and I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen a bit more of an adjustment in the market on this number. I’d expect the Rockets to regress a bit on offense, especially away from home in a tough environment, while the Warriors should get a friendlier whistle and amp up their defensive intensity a bit at home. The status of Jimmy Butler is crucial for this game, but Golden State is “cautiously optimistic” that the veteran forward will play on Saturday. Assuming Butler is in the lineup, the Warriors defense should put forth its best effort of the series, which leads me to believe that we’ll see a sluggish offensive effort from the Rockets. Including this series, 6 of the 7 games between these teams saw at least one team finish under 100 points this season, which should carry over into Saturday’s contest. I’ll take a shot on the under.

Rockets vs Warriors prediction: Under 204 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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