HomeNBANBA PredictionsDenver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and Picks

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 03/17/25

Updated: 1:52 PM ET Mar 17, 2025

Chase CenterESPN

43-25

Nuggets

10:10 PM ETYesterday

39-28

Warriors

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Nuggets vs Warriors Pickswise Expert Predictions

NBA

Point Spread Pick

GS Warriors -4.5(-110)DEN Nuggets @ GS Warriors

Reasoning

Since acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat on February 6, the Golden State Warriors have found their footing and have not looked back for a minute. The Warriors are 14-2 since that trade took place and are currently riding a 7-game winning as they host the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Monday’s contest against the Nuggets will be the 5th game of a 7-game homestand for Golden State and they will look to change the narrative as Denver has defeated Golden State in their last 8 contests. The Nuggets are still holding strong in the Western Conference standings with a record of 43-25 and the current 3-seed, but they have traded wins with losses over their last 6 games and just lost to the Washington Wizards over the weekend.

Despite Denver dominating the Warriors head-to-head over the past few seasons, I think it’s time to strike when the iron’s hot and back the Warriors on their home floor. Across their last 15 games, Golden State ranks inside the top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating and they will need to win some games over the teams ahead of them in the standings to avoid falling into the play-in slot with the Timberwolves and Clippers on their heels. Over the course of their 14-2 run, the Warriors have only played in a handful of close games, winning 10 of those games by 5 or more points. Lay the points with Golden State while they play their best basketball of the season.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction: Warriors -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kyle Lupas

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Born and raised in Northeast Pennsylvania and a former college baseball player, I'm an avid fan and handicapper of the MLB, NBA, NFL and NCAA's. Looking to find an edge by any means necessary. A lifelong Phillies fan, I was still unable to get my learner's permit the last time they made a postseason appearance. For Kyle Lupas media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Same Game Parlay

Money Line

DEN Nuggets Win

Player Rebounds

N. Jokic (DEN) - 12+ rebs

Player Threes Made

S. Curry (GS) - Over 3.5 threes

Reasoning

Denver Nuggets ML over Golden State Warriors (+172)

Over the weekend the Nuggets got swept by the 15-51 Washington Wizards, who beat them for the second time this season. Similar to the first meeting where Jokic scored 56 points, the 3-time MVP racked up 40 on Saturday but it wasn’t enough. It’s time for the Nuggets to redeem themselves and what better place to do so than Chase Center? It’s not often we get a chance to bet on Denver as an underdog, especially not against a team they’ve beaten in 8 straight meetings. That’s right, Denver has swept the last 2 regular-season series and won the opener this season 119-115 back in early December.

Obviously, things have changed drastically since then and with Jimmy Butler on board this is a completely different Warriors squad, but I still have faith in the Nuggets here. The main reason is Golden State’s roster construction – they simply don’t have enough big bodies down low to contain the Joker and his averages of 31.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9 assists per game over the last 10 meetings prove that. The Warriors have won 7 games in a row but they’re still just 16-16-1 ATS in home games and have covered only 3 times in their last 10 games played on a Monday. I’ve not lost faith in the Nuggets despite the embarrassing result over the weekend, so let’s back them to come out of San Francisco with a big win here.

Nikola Jokic to record 12+ rebounds (-188)

Jokic’s dominance in this matchup goes back a long way. In the last 20 meetings, he’s averaging 13.1 rebounds per game, while in only 3 of those games has he failed to collect double-digit boards. Grabbing rebounds has been the Achilles heel for Golden State for the majority of this season — they just aren’t built to keep opposing players far from the basket.

Just the other day we saw the Knicks grab 13 offensive rebounds against them and for the season Golden State is allowing 52.6 rebounds a night, which ranks them in the bottom half of the NBA. Over their last 3 games, the Warriors are also grabbing just 9.7 offensive rebounds per game, so they haven’t been very active on that end either. Jokic had 10 boards in the first meeting, and with him averaging 14 per game over his last 10 outings I expect that number to go up here.

Steph Curry 4+ made threes (-295)

To close out my Nuggets vs Warriors Same Game Parlay, I have Curry connecting on 4 threes in this game. The 11-time All-Star has been cooking over the past 10 games, knocking down 42.2% of his attempts from downtown. Having Jimmy Butler by his side has allowed Steph to elevate his game even further, as he just broke the 4,000 threes threshold for his career the other day and is showing no signs of slowing down.

Curry is delivering 4.4 threes per game in March and only twice in 8 games has he failed to clear this mark. Denver did do a solid job against him in the first meeting, holding him to just 26% efficiency, but he was able to clear this line with 15 shots attempted. Over the last 10 meetings, he’s at 3.9 threes made per game, I’m sure he will want to make amends for his sub-par performance in the first meeting. Too bad for Warriors fans that it could be in a losing effort.

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10:00 PM ETYesterday

Nuggets vs Warriors Same Game Parlay

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Game Totals

5 of the Nuggets' last 6 matchups with the Warriors have stayed Under the total.

Money Line

The Warriors have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against Western Conference Northwest Division teams.

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