Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/28/25

Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 over Miami Heat (-112)

With a comfortable 3-0 lead heading into Game 4 on Monday, the Cavaliers have just one thing on their mind and that is to close this thing out and not give the Heat any life. A 37-point lead in Game 3 without Darius Garland and a mediocre game from Donovan Mitchell showed just how much of a talent disparity there is in this series. Through 3 games the Cavs are shooting over 50% from the field and are outrebounding the Heat by 6 boards per game. All the 50-50 plays also seem to go Cleveland’s way and the level of hustle displayed by this team hasn’t been matched by their opponent.

Despite traditionally playing well against Cleveland at home (15 wins in the last 20 meetings at Kaseya Center), we didn’t see any of that in Saturday’s clash. The Heat struggled on offense and this series exposed just how limited they are against top-tier defenses. Bam Adebayo is the only player who deserved a pass as he went for 22 points and 9 rebounds in the loss, and for most of those points he had to work very hard and create by himself. It’s not often you see Bam connect on 4 threes in a game and the defense of Cleveland has been hard to penetrate. Things just aren’t looking promising for Miami ahead of Game 4 in South Beach.

Cleveland looks to join their counterpart from the Western Conference, OKC, as the 2nd team to advance to the 2nd round here and they have every right to hope for that. Nothing in this series so far has indicated to me that Miami can avoid elimination here. Even without their 2nd-best player and main playmaker Garland, the Cavaliers destroyed Miami in Game 3. I expect a similar outcome in Monday’s game and for Cleveland to win by double digits.

Donovan Mitchell to score 30+ points (+200)

A fairly mediocre output in Game 3 by Donovan Mitchell didn’t disrupt the chemistry of the Cavaliers on offense, as they were able to score a series-high 124 points. The 13 points scored by Mitchell were a low for the series, but he had exactly 30 in both games in Cleveland earlier in the series. With the expectation of Game 4 being slightly closer than the 37-point demolition we saw in Game 3, Mitchell might have to do extra work on offense again.

In head-to-head meetings with Miami, he’s at 26.8 points per game in the last 8 games and has cleared this line 4 times, so we’re getting +200 odds for a bet that cashes 50% of the time. Cleveland is shooting 43% from three through 3 games, plus they’re also getting whatever they want inside the paint. In Saturday’s matchup they scored 60 points from close range, and it feels like the Heat defense just isn’t up to the task in this series. Let’s hope Mitchell can catch fire early here to bring home our Cavaliers vs Heat Same Game Parlay.