NBA Picks

No Jaylen Brown, no problem for the Boston Celtics — who opened their 4-game west coast road trip with a 118-115 win over Minnesota last night. Jayson Tatum led the scoring with 33, including 6 threes, while Derrick White took over as the 2nd scorer with 26 on 5 triples. Now the question is if the C’s have enough left in the tank against the young Rockets. Well, experience is one thing they’ll definitely try to lean on here. Houston does a solid job at limiting opponent 3s, but that might not matter against the team that averages 50.6 a night. Boston has cashed on 20+ 3s in 4 of the last 5 games.

Meanwhile, the Rockets really struggled with their 3-ball in the win over the shorthanded Mavericks, scoring just 8 of them. It wasn’t a pleasant ending to 2024, with close losses to Minnesota and Miami. They will be underdogs for the 9th time in this game with a 4-4 SU record in such games. Their only edge going into this game is the rest factor, if the refs allow a slightly physical game then the Rockets will stand a chance. Houston currently has the 2nd-best defensive efficiency, allowing just 103.4 points per 100 possessions.

In a game between 2 defensive juggernauts, I feel like the under deserves a look. Boston currently has Brown and Porzingis out with injuries and although it has a deep bench, playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back won’t be ideal. The Rockets know they don’t stand a chance if they let the scoring get out of hand. Both teams are in the bottom tier when it comes to pace, plus the under has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. I’ll stick with the trends and back the under.

Celtics vs Rockets prediction: Under 221.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks are in for a true character test on Friday, when they bring their 9-game winning streak into Oklahoma City to face the red-hot Thunder. Over the last 9 games the Knicks have the 4th-best offense and the 2nd-best defense. They are playing their best basketball of the season and although the quality of schedule hasn’t been the best, it’s hard to argue their current 9-game surge. Jalen Brunson is playing at an MVP level and he is also getting massive help from Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, who have elevated their game to a whole new level. The question is how will they fare against the team that has beaten them 8 times in the last 10 meetings?

Only the Thunder have better numbers than the Knicks over the past 9 games, especially in the defensive categories — where they allow 5 less points over 100 possessions. And that’s been the main story of this team: it gets stops and gives the ball to SGA for him to create the offense. Over his last 10 games he is averaging 34.5 points on over 57% from the field and 40% from deep. One player cannot slow him down, the Knicks will have to figure out how to do it as a team. One big factor going into this game is the health of Alex Caruso, who did not play vs the Clippers. He is questionable here, as well, with a hip issue.

This game has the potential to be one of the best ones so far in the regular season. Although some of its flaws have been masked by them playing weaker opponents, I still feel like New York won’t go down without a fight here. The Knicks have shot over 50% from the field in 3 of 4 games. If Caruso doesn’t play then Brunson can definitely match SGA’s output, and the Knicks will be in a solid position. I’ll go with the road squad and the extra points.

Knicks vs Thunder prediction: Knicks +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have been on a roll, winning 8 straight games. They are also currently tied for the fewest road losses in the NBA and will be confident they will improve on that against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks have been hit by an injury bug, with Luka Doncic out until the end of the month. One of their other main scoring threats, P.J. Washington, is also listed as questionable along with Maxi Kleber. Naji Marshall is suspended. They have lost 3 straight games, with the last 2 being by double-digit margins. Against a relatively injury free Cavaliers team, the Mavs may suffer a similar fate.

The Cavaliers have been dominating the league lately, topping the NBA in net offensive and defensive rating over the last 10 games. Their offense has been the standout, ranking 3rd in points per game during that time and topping the league in 3-point percentage. In the last 4 games that Doncic has missed, the Mavericks are just 25th in points per game. A lot of pressure will be put on Kyrie Irving to be the primary creator. However, it is something he has had issues doing — combining for just 4 assists over his last 2 games. If he struggles to get the Mavericks role players going, they should be looking at another double-digit loss against one of the elite units in the league.

Cavaliers vs Mavericks prediction: Cleveland -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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It’s a showdown of elite big men tonight in Denver, as Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs take on Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Jokic, a perennial MVP candidate, continues to anchor Denver’s high-octane offense, while Wembanyama’s rapid development has turned the Spurs into a team to watch. The Nuggets dominated the series last year, winning three of four matchups, but this is a different Spurs squad. The addition of veteran point guard Chris Paul has brought leadership and playmaking, and Wembanyama has taken a massive step forward in his sophomore campaign. San Antonio enters the game at 17-16, riding a respectable 4-3 stretch since mid-December. While they’ve struggled to close out tight games against top competition—losing to the Sixers, Knicks, and Timberwolves by a combined 10 points—the Spurs’ ability to hang with playoff-caliber teams is a promising sign.

Denver, at 19-13, has been an offensive juggernaut, ranking third in points per game, second in field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point shooting. However, their 20th-ranked defense and the continued absence of Aaron Gordon could leave them vulnerable. Despite averaging 135 points per game over their last four contests, Denver’s recent competition—Detroit, Utah, and Atlanta—has been subpar. The Spurs are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games and 8-6 on the road, while the Nuggets are 7-7 ATS at home but just 8-14 when favored. With Denver potentially due for some offensive regression, expect a close battle.

Spurs vs Nuggets prediction: San Antonio +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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