NBA Picks

The Heat are going to get a lot of love here because they are at home and a different team in South Beach. That’s all well and good, but the problem is Houston plays winning basketball on the road. And more importantly, their recipe for success is a bit of a problem for a team like Miami to solve.

Houston leans into physicality, defense, and optimizing its transition game. The Rockets believe in rim protection. For a team like Miami that likes to play with pace and light up the scoreboard, this could be a styles clash that does not benefit them in the least. The Rockets can keep things slow, they can minimize second chances, and wear the Heat down by forcing them to bang down low for four quarters. However, because Miami has won nine of the last ten meetings and covered in the last four contests between these two, the temptation is to back the Heat at home with trends supporting that decision. If anything though, that makes the Heat overvalued, not the opposite. Moreover, Miami is one of the best covering sides this season at 34-25 ATS while the Rockets sit four games under .500 at 27-31 ATS. This is a great spot to actually buy low on the Rockets in a game that they can win emphatically.

Rockets vs Heat prediction: Rockets -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

With an 18-10 ATS/SU record on the road this season the Toronto Raptors have made a name for themselves as one of the elite away teams in the NBA. The schedule hasn’t been kind to them in their last two games, pinning them against the OKC Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, resulting in back-to-back home losses. The good news is they get a fairly easy game against the Wizards on Saturday as they try to bounce back. The season series is tied at 1-1, but with the current situation the Wizards are in right now you have to like the Raptors’ chances here. They’ve won 12 of 16 meetings, while covering in 7 of 9. When it comes to road games in Washington they are also 5-1 ATS in 6 such games.

The Wizards showed life by winning their first two games out of the break, but then proceeded to drop the next 3 by 17, 21 and 30 points. The state of this team isn’t good at all, they’ve given up on the season a long time ago, refusing to play their two big mid-season acquisitions Trae Young and Anthony Davis. Washington is among the teams that are currently tanking, hoping to get a high draft pick and starting over fresh next year. Their record of 2-6 SU/ATS over the past 8 games is an indicator of things to come on Saturday. They’ve covered in just 2 of 15 games vs Atlantic Division opponents, only the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz have a worse defensive efficiency rating this season.

The only thing that could prevent the Raptors from winning big here is if they take this game lightly, I’m hoping they don’t do that. They’ve dominated far better opponents on the road this season, as favorites this team is 22-13 SU in 35 games overall. Unlike the Wizards they are pretty much at full strength here, I have them wining this one comfortably.

 Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards Predictions: Raptors -14 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that umber.

The Los Angeles Lakers will be hoping to halt a 3-game losing streak when they visit the Golden State Warriors on Saturday evening. If there is any positive for the Lakers, it’s that their 2 most recent setbacks have come down to the last second — 110-109 to Orlando and 113-110 to Phoenix. Additional good news is that L.A. is basically 100 percent in the health department. Only Rui Hachimura is listed as day-to-day with an illness. Golden State, on the other hand, is still without Stephen Curry (the former Davidson star will have his right knee reevaluated this weekend). As such, my Lakers vs Warriors pick is for the visitors to win and cover.

It’s not like Golden State is in good form, either. Head coach Steve Kerr’s crew is 6-9 in its last 15 contests and has not won back-to-back games since a January 13-19 hot stretch. The Dubs are coming off a victory over Memphis on Wednesday, so they will have to end that trend if they want to find the win column again on Saturday. Golden State will be hard-pressed to do that with Curry on the sideline, especially since Jimmy Butler (ACL) is out for the season. Moreover, De’Antony Melton is questionable with a knee problem and — as usual — Kristaps Porzingis’ status is uncertain due to illness. It’s simply too hard to back the Warriors in this spot when you can’t be sure if they will be able to field a competitive squad. These 2 teams faced each other on February 7 and Los Angeles took care of business 105-99 even without Luka Doncic.

Lakers vs Warriors prediction: Los Angeles -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For the 2nd consecutive game the Pelicans and Jazz square off at Delta Center, as New Orleans looks to win a 4th consecutive game. Thursday saw them dominate this opponent by 11, behind 42 points from Saddiq Bey and 20 points from Zion Williamson. Trey Murphy III’s absence was noticeable, but against a lackluster opponent like the Jazz it’s easy to overcome the absence of even your best player. New Orleans led by as many as 27 points in that win, you’d think adjustments will be made for Saturday’s clash, but even if that is the case only one team in this game is truly looking to win.

Utah’s tactic of throwing away the season has come under a lot of criticism, even the NBA reacted by fining them $500,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league”. But, that hasn’t really had an effect on the Jazz who continue to play their young guys with the excuse of developing them, instead of trying to win right now. JJJ’s season is over after he had surgery to repair his knee, as well as Jusuf Nurkic who opted for a procedure on his nose which has bothered him for some time. Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen are also doubtful to play here, some of the names we’ll see in the Jazz starting line-up will look very unfamiliar on Saturday.

This game will come down to who wants it more and I am of the firm belief that team is the Pelicans. Bey and Williamson are still producing at a high level, they should have their way against the young and inexperienced Jazz once again. NOLA is on a 6-game win streak in head-to-head meetings, they’ve also covered the spread in 9 consecutive games vs West opponents overall. Back them to cover again here.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz Predictions: Pelicans -6 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.