NBA Picks

The Cleveland Cavaliers have looked comfortable in the first 2 games of the series, winning both by at least a 9-point margin. They should be well positioned to keep that momentum going in Game 3 in Miami. The Heat have had issues defending their home court this season, finishing the year with a 19-22 record. The Cavaliers on the other hand have thrived on the road. Their point differential of 7.4 in those games is good enough for 3rd in the NBA. Their defensive performances have been a huge part of that. Having the recently crowned Defensive Player of the Year in Evan Mobley positions them perfectly to lock down the Heat once more.

Another major issue facing the Heat is the fact that they simply cannot slow down their opponents. With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland both consistently and effectively picking on Tyler Herro, the Cavaliers offense has been rolling. In fact, they currently have the best offensive rating of all teams in the NBA Playoffs. They have also been making an incredible 45.5% of their 3-point attempts, effectively negating the rim protection that Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware are able to offer. With the team in such a roll, going on the road should not impact them here. Back them to cover the spread.

Cavaliers vs Heat prediction: Cleveland -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable t0 -7.

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We might be heading towards our first sweep of the 2025 NBA Playoffs on Saturday as the OKC Thunder look to put the final nail in the coffin of the Memphis Grizzlies’ season. Memphis came out with a ton of energy in Game 3 and led by as many as 29 points, but the Thunder showed us why they finished the regular season 68-14 by coming back and winning 114-108. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again had an inefficient shooting game, but he did finish with 31 points to lead all scorers. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams each had 20+ to help out and now the Thunder are looking to sweep. Thursday’s win was their 7th in a row this season over the Grizz, but the first by single digits.

Ja Morant’s hip injury might have something to do with the Thunder rallying back from that massive deficit. He left the game with 3 minutes left in the first half after a nasty fall and his team put up just 31 points total over the final 24 minutes of play. With his status up in the air the Grizzlies are now 14.5-point underdogs with their season on the line. So far in 32 games he’s missed, Memphis has won 18 games and lost 14, which makes them a .563 pace win team. It is interesting to note that the offensive rating takes a jump from 117.6 with Morant to 119.9 without him in the lineup. Obviously, the Grizzlies are not the same team when their best player doesn’t play, so that could just be an indicator that they play at a much faster pace, sacrificing effort on the defensive end.

Closeout games are never easy to win, especially on the road. But, the Thunder have owned this matchup the entire year and are currently on a run of 12 wins in a row against Memphis stretching back to the 2022-23 season. I have OKC winning, but the spread looks a tad too high so let’s pivot to the points with the expectation that the Grizzlies won’t go down without a fight.

Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 4 prediction: Over 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The first-ever playoff game at the brand-new Intuit Dome lived up to the hype, with the Clippers steamrolling their way to a dominant 117-83 win in Game 3. At one point in the second quarter, L.A. unleashed a jaw-dropping 20+ point run, with Denver scoring 3 in between, flipping the game on its head and energizing the home crowd. Now leading 2-1 in the series, the Clippers look poised, however, far from finished. It’s turning into one of the most entertaining matchups of the postseason.

Game 1 was a heartbreaker for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game only to unravel in the fourth. Since then, they’ve bounced back strong behind the inspired play of Kawhi Leonard, who erupted for 39 points in Game 2 and followed it with another efficient outing in Game 3. The supporting cast — Harden and Powell — also chipped in 20+ each, showing the depth that makes this team dangerous.

On the other side, the Nuggets have a lot less momentum. Nikola Jokic has been steady, nearly notching a triple-double in Game 1 and achieving one in the Game 2 loss. But the absence of head coach Michael Malone is beginning to show, especially in the team’s inability to adjust mid-game. Russell Westbrook has been a bright spot, surprisingly leading Denver in hustle stats and second-chance plays grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds in the process. In a pivotal game 4, don’t expect the Nuggets to go down 3-1 with at least a fight.

Nuggets vs Clippers prediction: Denver +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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Heading into this series, the general consensus was that the Orlando Magic had the talent and grit to at least make the Boston Celtics work for a first-round victory — maybe even steal a game. But after a lopsided Game 1 in which the Celtics coasted to a 17-point win without ever really hitting their stride, that narrative took a sharp turn. Boston held the Magic under 90 points in the opener and made it look relatively easy. The question quickly shifted from “Can Orlando win a game?” to “Will they even come close?”

However, the series got more interesting when Jayson Tatum suffered a wrist injury late in Game 1. He sat out Game 2 and is listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest in Orlando. Given the Celtics’ depth and championship aspirations, it would be wise for them to rest Tatum for the remainder of the series — especially with New York or Detroit looming. Despite missing their superstar, the C’s pulled out a 9-point win in Game 2 after leading by just 3 at the half. It was a gritty, professional performance, but it also left the door cracked open. The Magic have played Boston tough all season. The Celtics are 8-3 without Tatum this year and 2 of those losses have come against none other than Orlando. If there’s ever a game for the Magic to steal, this is it.

Celtics vs Magic Prediction: Orlando +5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The first 2 games of this series were largely one-sided affairs in favor of the Indiana Pacers, but all hope isn’t lost for the Bucks just yet. In fact, if Milwaukee can get any sort of consistent production from its supporting cast around Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks can claw their way back into this series with a win in Game 3 at home. Milwaukee’s best punch in this series should come on Friday, especially with Damian Lillard fully integrated back into the flow of the offense following his insertion back into the lineup on Tuesday. Lillard struggled mightily in that game, but he should be able to play a little more freely and comfortably at home now that he’s shaken the rust off a bit.

The Indiana defense is much improved, but the Pacers still struggle with perimeter shooting, as Milwaukee had plenty of opportunities to knock down clutch threes in each of the first 2 games and just couldn’t when it mattered most. Not only does Lillard playing more minutes give the Bucks’ offense a massive boost, but it provides Antetokounmpo with another outlet on the perimeter, along with Bobby Portis, who is coming off a 28-point effort in Game 2 himself. As for the Pacers, Indiana was just .500 on the road this season and we’ve yet to see the best from Tyrese Haliburton in this series. If Milwaukee can find a way to contain either Pascal Siakam or Andrew Nembhard — who are both having stellar series thus far — the Bucks should actually be in decent shape in this one.

As I mentioned in a few of my previews for other first-round series, teams that win games in the playoffs tend to also cover spreads. In fact, the first round has already seen straight-up winners post a 14-3 ATS record, which has built on a 5-year run of close to a 90% winning percentage against the spread in the postseason for teams that get the outright victory. Additionally, teams that trail 2-0 in a series and return home for Game 3 are traditionally excellent against the number in a spot where they’ll be desperate to make it a series. With that in mind, I’ll continue to follow this trend and lay the points with the Bucks in a game where Milwaukee should be more focused from start to finish on Friday.

Pacers vs Bucks prediction: Bucks -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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Pressure was on the Lakers in Game 2 to respond following a surprising loss in the opener and they did just that in what was one of the toughest battles they had all year long. The physicality went up a notch, as 4 Laker players logged 39+ minutes and with this series now being played every other day, you have to wonder whether the likes of LeBron James and company can handle this pace. The series now shifts to Minnesota for the next 2 games and the Lakers haven’t had much success at Target Center lately, losing in their last 4 visits by an average of 12 points per game.

I was really disappointed in the approach of the Timberwolves in Game 2, as they seemed content with getting the split after winning the opener and didn’t come out with the same intensity in this one. They fell behind early by 19 points, the three-ball was non-existent at just 20% for the night, plus they also lost the rebounding battle 41-34. When you have a player like Rudy Gobert going up against an inferior rebounding team like the Lakers, you simply must win the battle on the boards. Playing in front of the home fans should fix some of those issues, plus the role players usually tend to play a bit better at home, so I’m expecting big contributions from Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Game 3.

This series has been a dogfight so far, with both teams struggling to get their offenses going. The Under has cashed in both postseason games so far, as well as in all 4 regular-season meetings. With the series lead on the line I doubt either side will allow the scoring to get out of hand here and I expect the intensity to increase even further in this one. Let’s stick with the trends and back the Under once again.

Lakers vs Timberwolves Game 3 prediction: Under 206.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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