NBA Picks

With 2 losses in 3 games the Cavaliers have slowed down a bit, but luckily for them their next 5 opponents are all teams with losing records so bouncing back should be easy. First up they have a back and forth with the Dallas Mavericks, with the first game taking place in Texas on Friday night. This has been a match-up dominated by the Cavs over the past 3 years, with them sweeping the regular season series in each of those 3 seasons. The last 2 meetings were decided by 43 and 12 points, Cleveland has also been able to cover the spread consistently in games played in Dallas, doing so 4 times in 5 visits. Jarrett Allen and Max Struss are the only two notable injury absentees here, whether or not that has an impact on this game remains to be seen.

The Mavs just ended an 8-game losing streak last night by beating the Memphis Grizzlies on the road. It was only their 3rd win since January 24th, since then they’ve lost 18 and won just 3 games. Cooper Flagg’s play since the injury has put his Rookie of the Year campaign in jeopardy, he’s averaging just 16.3 points on pedestrian efficiency numbers (34% from the field and 25% from three). With this being a 2nd night of a back-to-back I wouldn’t be surprised if Flagg was kept out of this game, in this scenario the Mavericks are just 5-6 SU in 11 games this season.

This is Cleveland’s game to lose. Allen not playing hurts them a bit in the rebounding department, but with a healthy Donovan Mitchell and a motivated James Harden they should be able to put up enough points to cover here. Dallas has lost 3 in a row when playing with no rest, with two of those losses being by 20 and 19 points. Go with the Cavs here.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions: Cavaliers -13 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This matchup looks extremely lopsided on paper, which explains why Detroit is laying a massive number. The Pistons enter with one of the best records in the league at 47–18, while Memphis sits near the bottom of the Western Conference at 23–42. Oddsmakers have responded accordingly, installing Detroit as huge chalk.

But spreads of this size often become more about game script than talent. When a favorite is laying more than two touchdowns, it must maintain separation for nearly the entire game to justify the number. Even elite teams struggle to sustain that type of margin over 48 minutes. The Grizzlies’ offensive profile also works in favor of an underdog cover. Memphis is capable of playing at a faster tempo, which creates scoring bursts that can quickly erase large margins. In high-possession environments, even short runs from the underdog can put them in range to cover under this lofty number. Another factor is motivation and rotation management. Detroit’s priority is winning and maintaining playoff positioning, not necessarily pushing a blowout margin late. If the Pistons build a comfortable lead, the game can naturally flatten in the fourth quarter. Memphis does not need to outperform Detroit to cover. It simply needs to remain competitive enough to prevent the Pistons from piling on a scoring avalanche. With such a large number attached, the value sits with the points.

Grizzlies vs Pistons prediction: Grizzlies +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.

A new chapter in the Knicks vs Pacers rivalry is set to unfold on Friday, with the regular season series tied at 1-1 between the two teams. With the state that the Pacers are in right now, you’d think this would be a cakewalk for the Knicks. However, with those first two meetings being decided by just 1 and 3 points and the Pacers winning at MSG, the Knicks will have to proceed with caution here. The injury situation in Mike Brown’s camp isn’t the best either, both Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart are questionable to play with knee issues.

The oddsmakers aren’t kind at all to the Pacers here and you can’t really blame them. Indy enters this game as a 13.5 point underdog, mainly because of their recent form but also due to the fact that they’ll be playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario here. Ivica Zubac finally made his debut for the team in last night’s double-digit loss to Phoenix, the injury report for tonight’s game has Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam all officially listed as out. If you’re wondering who will take the floor for the Pacers in this game, you are not alone.

Normally I’d think twice before backing the Knicks to cover here, given the history between the two teams. However, with the state of the Pacers being really bad at the moment, I have my doubts they can keep things close here. Their last 5 games have seen them allow 120+ points 4 times and with most of their starters out here, I do not believe they’ll be able to contain Jalen Brunson and the rest of the Knicks. New York is 10-4 SU in 14 road games and has covered in 6 of 8 overall. Back the Knicks.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Predictions: Knicks -13.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Minnesota’s identity begins with defense. The Timberwolves are one of the better defensive teams in the league, built around rim protection and physical half-court defense. When Minnesota dictates the style of play, opponents often struggle to maintain efficient scoring for extended stretches. Golden State plays a style of basketball that plays right into the Wolves’ hands. Golden State loves to shoot the three and that volatility in itself makes totals unpredictable. In a spot where they are slowed down and won’t have as many quality looks, that matters even more.

When possessions become more methodical, totals that appear reachable on paper can quickly become inflated. Even short scoring droughts or extended half-court sequences can suppress overall shot volume which in turn mitigates scoring. If Minnesota successfully turns the game into a defensive, half-court battle and Golden State falls into rank, the scoring environment should fall short of the posted number.

Timberwolves vs Warriors prediction: Under 225.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.