NBA Picks

After the Bulls smashed the Wizards by 31 in the same range two days ago as a 5.5-point favorite at tip-off, it feels as if the oddsmakers are daring the market to double down on Chicago again pricing the Wizards in the same range. The Bulls look way too easy here.

Everything went right for Chicago to generate this result. The Wizards had an offensive meltdown despite Chicago’s defense being typically generous and the Bulls could not miss hitting 49% of their field goals. Add in the tempo and added possessions, the margin gets created when things like this transpire. We are daring the Bulls to do that again. Because as we wrote previously, when Chicago’s rhythm is flowing they can light it up, but if they have enhanced possessions and start throwing up bricks, they can actually be on the opposite end of the result they produced on Tuesday. If their drubbing of Washington was anything to sink one’s teeth into, the Bulls would actually be favored by more here. Instead, the line is baiting backers to get behind the Bulls at what appears to be a beatable number. I am taking the Wizards to cover, but again, even after Tuesday, I am not shocked if an upset happens in D.C.

Bulls vs Wizards prediction: Washington Wizards +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

The Boston Celtics are looking to lock up the Eastern Conference’s #2 seed as they prepare to visit the New York Knicks inside Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. Boston holds a 3-game lead over third-place New York, but the Knicks would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with a victory in this matchup — so both teams should still be playing hard. Exactly who will be on the floor for the Celtics, however, remains to be seen. They are starting a back-to-back situation that continues on Friday against New Orleans, so several guys may sit out at least 1 of the legs. As a result, 4 of Boston’s 5 starters (Jayson Tatum being the only exception) are currently listed as questionable for Thursday. Therefore the C’s are too risky for me to back; my Celtics vs Knicks prediction is for the home team to win and cover.

There is no denying that the Celtics are hot at the right time, owners of a 4-game winning streak and 11 victories in their last 13 contests. Of course, that means they pretty much know they are going to win at least 1 of their last 3 games regardless of Thursday’s result. If they rest their guys on Thursday, an absolute blowout of New Orleans on Friday is almost certainly in the cards. Meanwhile, New York has followed up a 3-game losing streak with a current 3-game winning streak. The Knicks do not want to throw away this momentum with the playoffs approaching — especially not in front of the home crowd. I would avoid making a play until the status of Boston’s lineup is confirmed, but right now New York looks like the better choice.

Celtics vs Knicks prediction: Under 8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a pure pricing play. Indiana being favored on the road against anyone should require a stronger case than “Brooklyn being bad” because the Pacers are 18-61 and have a worser record than the Nets. So then we ask, should a bad team be laying points on the road? No, they shouldn’t. Laying points with a team that poor is already dangerous; doing it away from home is where that starts to matter more than the matchup.

Brooklyn’s season has clearly gone off the rails. Their blowout loss to Atlanta highlighted a team that was awful but it was mainly driven by 20 turnovers and complete offensive disorganization. That matters because turnovers are one of the more unstable game-to-game variables at the bottom of the league. Asking Indiana to exploit that consistently enough to win as a road favorite is ambitious. This is not about trusting Brooklyn; it is about recognizing that these are peer-level teams in the standings and the home team is an underdog at a very good price. In ugly games like this one, there is no true favorite. But getting the host at plus money is value because with all the variance that comes in contests like this one, home court may actually play a bigger role than some may imagine. Take the Nets.

Pacers vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn Nets +135 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +130.