NBA Picks

The Denver Nuggets hope their trend of alternating wins and losses continues when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday afternoon. Denver has gone back-and-forth over its past 9 games dating all the way back to February 4 and it most recently lost at Oklahoma City 127-121 in overtime on Friday, so you could say it is due for a win. The Nuggets should be able to get it, too, so my Timberwolves vs Nuggets pick is for the home team to win and cover. This marks the fourth meeting between these 2 Western Conference rivals, with Denver sweeping the regular-season head-to-head series 3-0. It got the job done 127-114 at Minnesota in October, 123-112 at Minnesota in November and 142-138 in overtime at home on Christmas Day.

Minnesota is in solid form right now, but not to the extent that you would expect the visitors to suddenly get over the hump in what is clearly a bad matchup for this club. Although the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU in their last 6 contests, they got blown out at home by Philadelphia 135-108 last weekend. Moreover, Julius Randle (21.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 5.3 apg) is questionable for Sunday due to back spasms. That would obviously be a huge loss down low against Nikola Jokic and company. Speaking of Jokic, he has scored at least 30 points in 3 of the last 4 games and is coming off a triple-double (23 points, 17 rebounds, 14 assists) against OKC. Give me Denver — and that’s even if Randle ends up taking the floor.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Denver -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s not often you’ll see the Memphis Grizzlies hold an opponent to just 105 points these days, but that’s exactly what they did in their last game beating the Mavs by 19 points on the road. The trip continues in Indiana on Sunday as they look to sweep the regular season series vs the Pacers. There’s really no good news on the injury front for either side here, with so many players out we aren’t exactly sure how the starting line-up for the Grizzlies will look here. For what it’s worth this team has the upper hand in head-to-head meetings winning 7 of the last 9 games, while also covering 8 times in that span.

Indiana is rock bottom of the Eastern Conference right now, with just one more loss than the Brooklyn Nets in 14th. They’ve dropped 5 games in a row, with two of those losses coming against the lowly Washington Wizards which is really hard to do considering how bad that team has played all year. I can’t see the Pacers putting in the effort to change things here, a win only worsens their chances for landing the top pick in the draft lottery. Even the three-ball which has been a reliable shot for most of the season has failed the Pacers – in their last 2 games they’ve dropped just 11 and 13 of them.

Entering March we will see a lot of games like this one where both teams would rather lose than get a win. So what is the best course of action? I’d say backing the over. That bet has cashed in 6 of 7 for Indy and in 5 straight at home. For Memphis that bet is 9-3 in their last 12 games, with both sides playing without any real pressure here, defenses might take the night off which should result in a lot of points. Back the over.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers Predictions: Over 238.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It was a lot harder than expected, but the Detroit Pistons got the job in the end beating the shorthanded Cavaliers 122-119 in OT. The game was marked by a malfunction in the arena horn which went off for 13 minutes, before eventually getting fixed. Sunday sees the Pistons travel to Orlando for a date with the Magic in what could potentially be a East first round playoffs preview. These two did split the first 2 meetings of the season so far, interestingly enough playing in the venue in Orlando hasn’t been a pleasant experience for the Pistons over the years. Cade and co. have failed to cover in their last 5 visits and are just 2-9 straight up in 11 meetings with the Magic overall.

Kevin Durant was too much to handle or the Magic in their last game as he dropped a cool 40 piece on them in a 113-108 home loss to Houston. It was the Magic’s first home game following a grueling West coast trip, so perhaps we can attribute the loss to that. With them settling in a bit, they’ll look to get a result at Kia Center where they are one of the more reliable home teams in the league at 17-10 SU this season. Coming up with a gameplan to contain Cade Cunningham will be a priority – the Pistons MVP candidate has torched them for an average of 34.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 10.5 assists in the two meetings so far this season.

The Pistons needed OT to beat a Cavs team without Donovan Mitchell and James Harden on Thursday. Orlando has been a tough nut to track over the years when playing at Kia Center, I feel like the Magic will use that to their advantage on Sunday. With a 6-3 SU record over their last 9 games and a run of 4-1 ATS in their last 5, I can definitely see them keeping things close here. .

Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic Predictions: Magic +5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Thunder played their hearts out on Thursday, spending a ton of energy by beating their number one competitor in the Western Conference the Denver Nuggets in OT. SGA returned triumphantly following a long absence due to injury, he will look to lead his team to an easy win on Sunday in Dallas. The Thunder still have a few notable players out injury, including Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams. Their last trip to Dallas saw them win by just 7 points back in late October, they do lead the regular season series 2-0 ahead of Sunday’s 3rd and final meeting.

Dallas has split their last 4 games coming into this one, despite a tough injury situation which has seen their rookie and leader Cooper Flagg miss multiple games. The foot injury has kept him out for over 2 weeks of play now, and his ROY award is in jeopardy with Kon Knueppel playing extremely well for the Charlotte Hornets. We probably won’t see Flagg return on Sunday, but I would imagine it’s happening this upcoming week at some point. Despite all their troubles this season the Mavs are still 16-16 ATS in home games this season, playing hard on the defensive end as they don’t really have a consistent three-ball.

A blowout is expected here, the oddsmakers have favored the road team by 15.5 points. I don’t believe the Mavs will go away without a fight here though, the last 6 meetings have seen them cover 4 times. OKC’s 31-30 ATS record is far from convincing from a bettors’ perspective, so I’ll take the Mavericks plus the points here.

OKC Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions: Mavericks +15.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The news coming out of Philadelphia once again isn’t good, Joel Embiid just got ruled out for the next 3 games with an oblique injury. That’s just the latest in line of a variety of injuries that have slowed down the Philly big man, he will be dearly missed in Sunday’s affair with the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Following a slow start out of the break and a 4-game losing streak, the Sixers have turned things around with 3 wins on the bounce vs Minnesota, Indiana and Miami. This team’s form has been very erratic and unpredictable this season, I would go as far as saying they are the Minnesota Timberwolves of the Eastern Conference with the way they’ve performed this season.

Meanwhile, the Celtics have been a lot more stable despite their best player not playing a single game this season and their coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for that. Jaylen Brown’s breakout season hasn’t gone unnoticed, he is very much a top 4 NBA MVP candidate this season along with SGA, Joker and Cade. Boston’s only slip up after the break happened in Denver where they got beat by 19 points at the hands of the Nuggets, in a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario. Things returned to normal with a dominant 148-111 win over the Nets the other day, Boston went off for 22 threes made in that game and a field goal percentage of over 66%. Doing that against a tanking Nets team is hardly a measuring stick, but it’s always nice to get a big win in preparation for a big game.

Philadelphia does lead the regular season series 2-1, they also stole a game at TD Garden on opening night by a point back in late October. The fact that they can lose by 8 points here and still cover is very tempting, the 3 meetings this season so far have been decided by just a combined 4 points. I guess it makes more sense to back the underdogs here, so let’s give Philadelphia the benefit of the doubt and back the Sixers plus the points.

 Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics Predictions: 76ers +9 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Heat are going to get a lot of love here because they are at home and a different team in South Beach. That’s all well and good, but the problem is that Houston plays winning basketball on the road. And more importantly, the Rockets’ recipe for success is a bit of a problem for a team like Miami to solve.

Houston leans into physicality, defense and optimizing its transition game. The Rockets believe in rim protection. For a team like Miami that likes to play with pace and light up the scoreboard, this could be a style clash that does not benefit them in the least. The Rockets can keep things slow, they can minimize second chances and wear the Heat down by forcing them to bang down low for 4 quarters. However, because Miami has won nine of the last 10 meetings and covered in the last 4 contests between these 2 teams, the temptation is to back the Heat at home with trends supporting that decision. If anything, though, that makes the Heat overvalued — not the opposite. Moreover, Miami is one of the best covering sides this season at 34-25 ATS — while the Rockets sit 4 games under .500 at 27-31 ATS. This is a great spot to actually buy low on the Rockets in a game that they can win emphatically.

Rockets vs Heat prediction: Houston -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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With an 18-10 ATS/SU record on the road this season, the Toronto Raptors have made a name for themselves as one of the elite away teams in the NBA. The schedule hasn’t been kind to them in their last 2 games, pitting them against the OKC Thunder and San Antonio Spurs — resulting in back-to-back home losses. The good news is they get a fairly easy game against the Wizards on Saturday as they try to bounce back. The season series is tied at 1-1 — but with the current situation the Wizards are in right now, you have to like the Raptors’ chances. They have won 12 of the last 16 meetings while covering in 7 of 9. When it comes to road games in Washington, they are also 5-1 ATS in 6 such games.

The Wizards showed life by winning their first 2 games out of the break but then proceeded to drop the next 3 by 17, 21 and 30 points. The state of this team isn’t good at all; it has given up on the season a long time ago, refusing to play its 2 big mid-season acquisitions Trae Young and Anthony Davis. Washington is among the teams that are currently tanking, hoping to get a high draft pick and starting over fresh next year. A record of 2-6 SU/ATS over the past 8 games is an indicator of things to come on Saturday. The Wiz have covered in just 2 of 15 games against Atlantic Division opponents. Only the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz have a worse defensive efficiency rating this season.

The only thing that could prevent the Raptors from winning big is if they take this game lightly. I’m hoping they don’t do that. They have dominated far better opponents on the road this season; as favorites, they are 22-13 SU in 35 games overall. Unlike the Wizards, the Raptors are pretty much at full strength. I have them wining this one comfortably.

Raptors vs Wizards prediction: Toronto -14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Lakers will be hoping to halt a 3-game losing streak when they visit the Golden State Warriors on Saturday evening. If there is any positive for the Lakers, it’s that their 2 most recent setbacks have come down to the last second — 110-109 to Orlando and 113-110 to Phoenix. Additional good news is that L.A. is basically 100 percent in the health department. Only Rui Hachimura is listed as day-to-day with an illness. Golden State, on the other hand, is still without Stephen Curry (the former Davidson star will have his right knee reevaluated this weekend). As such, my Lakers vs Warriors pick is for the visitors to win and cover.

It’s not like Golden State is in good form, either. Head coach Steve Kerr’s crew is 6-9 in its last 15 contests and has not won back-to-back games since a January 13-19 hot stretch. The Dubs are coming off a victory over Memphis on Wednesday, so they will have to end that trend if they want to find the win column again on Saturday. Golden State will be hard-pressed to do that with Curry on the sideline, especially since Jimmy Butler (ACL) is out for the season. Moreover, De’Antony Melton is questionable with a knee problem and — as usual — Kristaps Porzingis’ status is uncertain due to illness. It’s simply too hard to back the Warriors in this spot when you can’t be sure if they will be able to field a competitive squad. These 2 teams faced each other on February 7 and Los Angeles took care of business 105-99 even without Luka Doncic.

Lakers vs Warriors prediction: Los Angeles -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For the second consecutive game, the Pelicans and Jazz square off at Delta Center. New Orleans looks to win a fourth consecutive game. Thursday saw the Pelicans dominate this same opponent by 11 points behind 42 from Saddiq Bey and 20 from Zion Williamson. Trey Murphy III’s absence was noticeable — but against a lackluster opponent like the Jazz, it’s easy to overcome the absence of even your best player. New Orleans led by as many as 27 points in that win. You would think adjustments will be made for Saturday’s clash — but even if that is the case, only one team in this game is truly looking to win.

Utah’s tactic of throwing away the season has come under a lot of criticism — even the NBA reacted by fining the team $500,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league.” But that hasn’t really had an effect on the Jazz, who continue to play their young guys with the excuse of developing them instead of trying to win right now. JJJ’s season is over after he had surgery to repair his knee, as well as Jusuf Nurkic who opted for a procedure on his nose that has bothered him for some time. Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen are also doubtful to play, so some of the names we’ll see in the Jazz starting lineup will look very unfamiliar on Saturday.

This game will come down to who wants it more, and I am of the firm belief that team is the Pelicans. Bey and Williamson are still producing at a high level, so they should have their way against the young and inexperienced Jazz once again. NOLA is on a 6-game winning streak in head-to-head meetings and has also covered the spread in 9 consecutive games against Western Conference opponents overall. Let’s back the Pels to cover again.

Pelicans vs Jazz prediction: Pelicans -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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