NBA Picks

After the Bulls smashed the Wizards by 31 in the same range 2 days ago as a 5.5-point favorite at tip-off, it feels as if the oddsmakers are daring the market to double down on Chicago again pricing the Wizards in the same range. The Bulls look way too easy here.

Everything went right for Chicago to generate this result. The Wizards had an offensive meltdown despite Chicago’s defense being typically generous and the Bulls could not miss hitting 49% of their field goals. Add in the tempo and added possessions, the margin gets created when things like this transpire. We are daring the Bulls to do that again because as we wrote previously, when Chicago’s rhythm is flowing they can light it up. However, if they have enhanced possessions and start throwing up bricks, they can actually be on the opposite end of the result they produced on Tuesday. If their drubbing of Washington was anything to sink one’s teeth into, the Bulls would actually be favored by more here. Instead, the line is baiting backers to get behind the Bulls at what appears to be a beatable number.

I am taking the Wizards to cover, but again, even after Tuesday, I will not be shocked if an upset happens in D.C.

Bulls vs Wizards prediction: Washington Wizards +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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The Boston Celtics are looking to lock up the Eastern Conference’s #2 seed as they prepare to visit the New York Knicks inside Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. Boston holds a 3-game lead over third-place New York, but the Knicks would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with a victory in this matchup — so both teams should still be playing hard. Exactly who will be on the floor for the Celtics, however, remains to be seen. They are starting a back-to-back situation that continues on Friday against New Orleans, so several guys may sit out at least 1 of the legs. As a result, 4 of Boston’s 5 starters (Jayson Tatum being the only exception) are currently listed as questionable for Thursday. Therefore, the C’s are too risky for me to back; my Celtics vs Knicks prediction is for the home team to win and cover.

There is no denying that the Celtics are hot at the right time, owners of a 4-game winning streak and 11 victories in their last 13 contests. Of course, that means they pretty much know they are going to win at least 1 of their last 3 games regardless of Thursday’s result. If they rest their guys on Thursday, an absolute blowout of New Orleans on Friday is almost certainly in the cards. Meanwhile, New York has followed up a 3-game losing streak with a current 3-game winning streak. The Knicks do not want to throw away this momentum with the playoffs approaching — especially not in front of the home crowd. I would avoid making a play until the status of Boston’s lineup is confirmed, but right now New York looks like the better choice.

Celtics vs Knicks prediction: New York Knicks -3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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This is a pure pricing play. Indiana being favored on the road against anyone should require a stronger case than “Brooklyn being bad” because the Pacers are 18-61 and have a worse record than the Nets. So then we ask, should a bad team be laying points on the road? No, they shouldn’t. Laying points with a team that poor is already dangerous; doing it away from home is where that starts to matter more than the matchup.

Brooklyn’s season has clearly gone off the rails. Their blowout loss to Atlanta highlighted a team that was awful, but it was mainly driven by 20 turnovers and complete offensive disorganization. That matters because turnovers are one of the more unstable game-to-game variables at the bottom of the league. Asking Indiana to exploit that consistently enough to win as a road favorite is ambitious.

This is not about trusting Brooklyn; it is about recognizing that these are peer-level teams in the standings and the home team is an underdog at a very good price. In ugly games like this one, there is no true favorite. However, getting the host at plus money is value because with all the variance that comes in contests like this one, home court may actually play a bigger role than some may imagine. Take the Nets.

Pacers vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn Nets ML (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable to +130.

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The 76ers didn’t do themselves any favors by losing their game in San Antonio the other day, despite facing a Wemby-less Spurs side in the 2nd half of that game. If there is a silver lining for them from that game, it’s the fact that Joel Embiid scored 34 points and grabbed 12 rebounds and looked a lot healthier than in previous weeks. Another tall task awaits the Sixers on Thursday as they head to Houston for a date with the red-hot Rockets, looking to sweep the regular season series. The first meeting played back in January went into OT, but the Sixers ultimately prevailed thanks to big games from Maxey, Embiid and Kelly Oubre. It’s pretty much the same team this time around, but I’d argue Paul George is in better form, averaging 24.4 ppg in his last 7 outings.

This 7-game win streak couldn’t happen at a better time for the Rockets, who are now tied with the Lakers at 50-29. However, due to losing the head-to-head regular season series, they are still in 5th place. They just have to post a better record over these remaining regular season games to guarantee themselves home court in that matchup, and with the shape that the Lakers are in right now, that seems very likely. Beating this Philly team will be difficult though, despite all the solid numbers the Rockets have posted in these last 7 games. This is one of the rare games in which they’ll see just how much they miss Steven Adams. Without his physicality down low, I just don’t think the Rockets will have enough to contain Embiid close to the basket.

Both teams still have everything left to play for, but I’d argue that the sense of urgency to win is slightly higher for Philadelphia, as they don’t want to slip further down in the standings. Houston is safe in the 5th seed and even if they don’t win here, I still see them winning their last 2 games. Combined with the Lakers losing 2 of their last 3, that should be enough for KD and co. to grab the 4th seed. Philadelphia has won 9 of 12 meetings and has covered in 5 of 6 at Toyota Center. I’ll back Philly here.

76ers vs Rockets prediction: Philadelphia 76ers +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Los Angeles Lakers travel to face the Golden State Warriors in a Western Conference matchup shaped heavily by injuries and inconsistency. Los Angeles enters at 50-29 but has dropped 3 straight games and is adjusting without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, removing over 50 points per game from the lineup. This has led to uneven offensive performances, including a 139-96 loss to Oklahoma City, with the team now leaning heavily on LeBron James and a thinner supporting cast. Despite these setbacks, the Lakers remain competitive due to defensive structure and experience, reflected in their 42-37 record against the spread.

Golden State enters at 37-42 and has struggled with consistency all season, averaging 114.8 points per game while allowing 115.0. Stephen Curry leads the offense with 27 points per game but is dealing with a knee issue, adding uncertainty. The Warriors recently snapped a losing streak with a narrow win over Sacramento but have not shown sustained momentum. With both teams dealing with inconsistency and the Lakers still capable of slowing tempo and competing defensively, this projects as a closer game than expected.

Lakers vs Warriors Prediction: LA Lakers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Hornets are still fighting to improve playoff positioning in the East, while Detroit has already locked up the top seed in the conference after clinching already. That difference matters in the final stretch of the regular season because Charlotte is playing for leverage, while Detroit’s biggest goals are already secured.

The Hornets are also playing some of their best basketball right now. Charlotte has been on absolute tear, they have gone 9-3 SU in their last 12 outings. No matter where the Hornets land in the Eastern Conference bracket, make no mistake, they are a threat. Stylistically, Charlotte’s offensive balance makes them dangerous too. The Hornets have multiple options to post double figures, and that kind of distributed scoring matters against Detroit’s physical defense because it prevents the Pistons from loading up on one creator. At home, with urgency and momentum, Charlotte gets the situational edge. Against a Detroit team with less at stake, the Hornets are the time to hop on here. They are favored for a reason.

Pistons vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte Hornets -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.