Ryan Bunnell
MLB and CFB handicapperRyan's Picks
The Minnesota Twins pulled out the win in the home opener Friday after trailing 3-0 against the Rays, going on the win 10-4. This time around, the numbers suggest a different story. Mick Abel (13.50 ERA, 3.60 WHIP) had a nightmare start to the season against an average Baltimore offense and faces a Rays lineup that has been strong against right-handed pitching thus far. Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in BA (.293) and 7th in wRC+ (128) vs. RHP. I expect the Rays offense to get to the 24-year-old coming off a rocky start.
On the contrary, lefty Steven Matz (7.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) takes the bump for Tampa Bay in a much more favorable spot. While Matz didn’t have an ideal start to the season either, he faces a Twins offense showing some rough splits early on this season. Minnesota is posting a 145 wRC+ against RHP compared to a 78 wRC+ against LHP; that’s a drastic drop off. As the Rays bullpen is posting a league-worst ERA thus far, I’ll back the lefty Matz to keep the Twins quiet early and take Tampa Bay on the First 5 Innings money line.
Rays vs Twins prediction: Tampa Bay F5 ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 straight games entering a Saturday contest against the Baltimore Orioles. Both squads have had an up and down start to the young season, but the starting pitching matchup in this one should be interesting. Shane Baz (6.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) had a less-than-ideal start to the season and faces a Pittsburgh lineup that found success against right-handed pitching in the opening matchup of the series, forcing an early exit for Orioles starter Kyle Bradish.
Both offenses rank middle of the pack against RHP early on this season, but Baz is tough to rely on after ending the 2025 season ranking in the 19th percentile in pitching run value. The sample size is a small pool to pull from, but the Pirates’ bullpen has outperformed Baltimore’s through seven games with a 4.11 combined ERA and a pair of saves. Neither offense has proven to be better than another, but Pittsburgh starter Carmen Mlodzinski (4.15 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) showed flashes of greatness with 8 strikeouts and 0 walks in 4.1 innings of work to debut the season. At a near coin flip price, I’ll back the home team to pull out back-to-back wins and take the Pirates money line.
Orioles vs Pirates prediction: Pittsburgh ML (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
