Wisconsin Badgers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 11/02/24

The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in what is shaping up to be a classic, hard-nosed Big Ten battle. Both teams lean on the run game and both offenses are led by turnover-prone quarterbacks in Braedyn Locke for the Badgers and Cade McNamara for the Hawkeyes. I expect Wisconsin in particular to struggle moving the ball considering Iowa’s defense has forced 15 turnovers (18th in FBS) and ranks 25th in EPA/rush and 17th in opponent rush yards per game. Wisconsin is fresh off a matchup against a top-20 rushing defense, in which Penn State held the Badgers to just 81 rushing yards and 3.o yards per carry. Wisconsin’s offense has been rather inconsistent all season, and I struggle to put any faith in the unit in a tough road spot against an elite defense.

While Iowa is fully capable of keeping this one interesting with defense alone, its offense could be in trouble. The Hawkeyes are a 1-trick pony with the ground game considering they rank 108th in EPA/dropback and 119th in passing efficiency. It’s a rather easy offense to game plan for, yet the Hawkeyes will likely continue pounding the rock with star RB Kaleb Johnson. The clash of 2 run-first offenses and two solid defensive units will likely lead to a drawn-out battle of possession. For what it’s worth, this line is seeing some reverse line movement considering the over/under was sitting at 43.0 on Monday but has dropped to 40.5 with over 80% of public bets on the over at the time of writing. With all things considered, I’ll follow the reverse line movement and take the under.

Wisconsin vs Iowa prediction: Under 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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