SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/23/24

The SMU Mustangs are rolling and look primed to compete in the ACC championship game as things stand, but the Virginia Cavaliers stand in their way. The Cavaliers have faced an absolute gauntlet of a schedule recently as SMU marks the 4th top-20 opponent in Virginia’s last 5 games. During that stretch, the defense is giving up 35.75 points per game and I struggle to see how they’ll slow down the ponies. SMU ranks top-25 in total offense, EPA/dropback and 22nd in net points per drive on offense. Despite ranking outside of the top-60 in tempo, the Mustangs have been wildly efficient especially through the air which has led to consistent big plays downfield. SMU ranks top-16 in passing efficiency as well as 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays and I struggle to see how the hosts can match that production.

Virginia sits outside of the top-100 FBS teams in net points per drive and success rate per dropback. Furthermore, they’ve struggled to convert on 3rd and 4th downs and have especially struggled to convert in the red zone. Every possession matters for Virginia in this one and with a turnover-prone QB in Anthony Colandrea, any sort of turnover issues will make the hill of matching SMU’s offense turn into a mountain. With all things considered, I’ll take the Mustangs to continue to roll.

SMU -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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