Michigan Wolverines vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/19/24

The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini meet in a top-25 matchup that consists of some interesting stylistic differences between the 2 teams. For starters, Michigan’s passing game has been putrid — but it has enjoyed tremendous success on the ground, ranking 35th in PPA/rush despite only running 60 plays per game. Death by a thousand knives — meaning small, chunk-yard runs over long, methodical drives — is the way Michigan is comfortable winning games right now. That could be an issue for Illinois. The Fighting Illini rank 103rd in PPA/rush and 117th in rush success rate. Furthermore, they have been one of the worst teams at the line of scrimmage defensively ranking 129th in OL yards and 134th in stuff rate on defense. 

Considering Michigan boasts an elite rush defense (7th in rush success rate and 16th in PPA/rush), Illinois will likely rely on the passing game. QB Luke Altmyer has been a pleasant surprise, but Illinois ranks 94th in plays per game and might not have the tempo needed to keep up with Michigan’s persistent, long scoring drives. Moreover, the Wolverines’ secondary has been solid this year. Illinois has been poor on defense in the red zone, as well, allowing opponents to score 19 times in 20 trips. With all things considered, I’m taking Michigan to cover.

Michigan vs Illinois prediction: Michigan -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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