Louisville Cardinals vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/30/24

The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a statement 37-9 over Pittsburgh, looking to take down the Kentucky Wildcats and win the Governor’s Cup for the first time since 2017. This spread is somewhat puzzling at first glance, but the Wildcats have had tremendous success in recent years against this Cardinals team. However, I believe that changes this year; the underlying numbers heavily favor Louisville. Kentucky ranks 115th in total offense, 117th in PPA/pass and 103rd in PPA/rush. There essentially hasn’t been a strong element of the offense and turnovers have been a problem, ranking 129th in interceptions per pass attempt. The Cardinals’ defense has had its ups and downs, but the unit ranks 24th in EPA/rush and the Wildcats typically lean on the ground game.

Simply put, I struggle to see how Kentucky’s offense can keep up with QB Tyler Shough and the Cards’ offense. Shough ranks top 10 individually in passing yards per game and he should have no issue carving up a Kentucky defense that has allowed 32.75 points per game in its last 4 against Power 4 opponents. Louisville ranks top 10 in both rushing success rate and passing success rate offensively and I expect the momentum from last week’s 507-yard performance to carry over into this rivalry game. With all things considered, I love the Cardinals in this spot and will take them to cover.

Louisville vs Kentucky prediction: Louisville -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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