Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/21/24

The Florida Gators take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in an SEC matchup consisting of two squads desperately needing a win. Florida has lost four straight games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight, and HC Billy Napier is firmly in the hot seat. On the other hand, Mississippi State has been bulldozed by ASU on the road and blown out by Toledo at home, so this is a must-win game with matchups against Texas and Georgia in the coming two weeks. Both defenses have been struggling mightily thus far, and this game has the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Mississippi State ranks 95th in EPA per drop back and 119th in both RROE and 3rd/4th down success defensively. Florida struggles in the same spots, ranking 125th, 101st, and 105th in the same categories, respectively. 

The Bulldogs’ offense ranks 21st in passing efficiency and has been able to move the bell well through the air. Their QB Blake Shapen has looked solid, and last time the Gators faced a capable gunslinger they gave up 41 points and 385 passing yards. For Florida offensively, I expect them to find the run game in this one against the 121st ranked rushing defense, which will then open up some big-play opportunities down field through the air. With all things considered, I’m taking the over in this one.

Over 58 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 58.5 (-110).

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