Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/16/24

The Big 12 has proven to be a gauntlet this season, as the once undefeated Iowa State Cyclones have dropped two straight to unranked conference opponents as they enter this week’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats are also off back-to-back Big 12 losses in which the defense was simply unreliable. Cincinnati ranks 93rd in defensive success rate and faces a tough Cyclones’ offense that has been as versatile as any unit in the country. Iowa State ranks top-28 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback on offense and averages 32 points per game over the last three weeks.

If Iowa State’s losses told us anything, it’s that the Cyclones’ defense might not be as elite as once perceived to be. The offense found its way in both games, but the defense gave up 532 yards to a formerly 2-6 Kansas squad and has appeared penetrable to say the least. Cincinnati’s offense has been able to move the ball fluidly under QB Brendan Sorsby, ranking 9th in offensive success rate on dropbacks and 31st in passing yards per game. Both Cincinnati and Iowa State rank top-40 in plays per game and I expect both squads to push the tempo in this one as the Bearcats fight for bowl eligibility and the Cyclones fight to revive a once historic season. With all things considered, I’m taking the over in this one.

Over 53.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 54.5 (-110).

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