Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/02/25

One of the best games of the entire weekend college basketball slate comes in the Big Ten, where the Wisconsin Badgers will take on the Michigan State Spartans in a game that will go a long way to deciding which team emerges with the Big Ten regular season title. As far as situational spots go, this is about as good of a spot as you can draw up for the Badgers, even with the game being played in East Lansing. After all, Michigan State is fresh off an absolutely massive win on a halfcourt heave at the buzzer against Maryland, a game in which the Spartans struggled mightily to score for the majority of the contest. Winning close isn’t something new to Michigan State, but eventually the other shoe will have to drop at some point. Over the last 7 games, the Spartans have close wins over UCLA, Oregon Illinois, Purdue, Michigan and Maryland, and that can’t be sustainable for a long period of time. This will also be the 5th game in a 15-day span for Michigan State, so fatigue could come into play once we hit the second half. 

As for the Badgers, Greg Gard’s team is coming off a routine victory over Washington in which Wisconsin’s offense got back on track in a major way. That success should carry over into Sunday’s matchup against a Michigan State defense that is excellent (6th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom), but has been on the right side of some very fortunate shooting variance from its opponents of late. Considering that Wisconsin is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league, I wouldn’t expect the Spartans to get this fortunate once again on Sunday. Furthermore, the Spartans don’t do a good enough job of forcing turnovers (222nd in turnover percentage) and they allow a ton of open looks from beyond the arc (333rd in 3-point rate allowed). If there was ever a team to take advantage of these lapses, it would be this Wisconsin program that is shooting the cover off the ball in Big Ten play. All things considered, it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers won the game outright, so I’ll certainly grab the points with Wisconsin here.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State prediction: Wisconsin +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Wisconsin vs Michigan State predictions.