Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 11/26/24

The final game of the BBN Invitational pits in-state Western Kentucky and Kentucky against one another in Lexington. While Western Kentucky enters with a 3-2 record, their resume lacks notable victories, with wins over Campbellsville and two invitational victories. Led by senior guard Don McHenry (17.2 PPG) and big man Babacar Faye (15 PPG, 7.8 RPG), the Hilltoppers average a solid 81 points per game, but their reliance on perimeter shooting could spell trouble tonight.

The Kentucky Wildcats, averaging a whopping 97 points per game (third in the nation), are the clear favorites. Behind the dynamic backcourt duo of junior guard Otego Oweh (16.2 PPG) and senior Koby Brea (16 PPG), Kentucky has been unstoppable offensively. However, the one statistic I am looking at tonight to make me believe Kentucky will run the floor tonight is 3-point defense (ranked 2nd nationally). Western Kentucky ranks 61st in 3-pointers made per game, 69th in percentage, but just 223rd in field goal %. Their efficiency has come against subpar perimeter defenses. Look at their last two opponents, which includes Lipscomb (206th) and Jackson State (359th) in 3-point defense.

With Kentucky boasting a top-20 overall defense and thriving in high-paced games, this matchup seems tailor-made for the Wildcats to dominate. Western Kentucky’s reliance on perimeter shooting, combined with Kentucky’s perimeter defense, points to a long night for the Hilltoppers. Expect the Wildcats to cover this large spread with ease.

Western Kentucky vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky -22.5 (-110). Playable to -24

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