Virginia Cavaliers vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 11/21/24

The Tennessee Volunteers get set to take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday night in Nassau, Bahamas as part of the Bahamas Championship, with the winner to face off against either Baylor or St. John’s tomorrow. The Volunteers, under head coach Rick Barnes, enter the tournament a perfect 4-0 and ranked 11th in the nation, while the Cavaliers remain unblemished at 3-0 under first-year head coach Ron Sanchez after the departure of Tony Bennett, who previously led the Virginia basketball program for 15 years. One of these teams will suffer their first loss of the season and the Volunteers are heavy favorites, entering Thursday’s matchup as 12-point favorites. Now that the stage is set, will the Volunteers cover the double-digit point spread, or will the Cavaliers hang tight and cover?

Despite losing All-American Dalton Knecht to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Vols have remained one of the top teams in college basketball by holding on to point guard Zakai Zeigler, while adding scorers to make up for the lost production of Knecht by picking up transfers such as Felix Okpara and Chaz Lanier. To date, the Vols haven’t missed a beat, and their 22-point win on the road as 2.5-point underdogs against Louisville immediately squashed any questions about regression. Over their first 4 games, Tennessee has won every contest by at least 16 points and are ranked 6th in the country, per Kenpom.

There are still some valid questions surrounding the Virginia Cavaliers and head coach Ron Sanchez as they enter this tournament. While the Cavs did pick up a good win over Villanova in their previous game, they still play at a snail’s pace with their adjusted tempo ranking 362 out of 364 college programs. Virginia has held all 3 of their opponents to 60 points or less, but Tennessee is a huge step up in competition, and they are averaging 88 ppg over their first 4 games. Virginia could limit the number of possessions the Vols ultimately get in this game, but Tennessee is not just scoring in bunches, they’re scoring more efficiently than any other team in the country, shooting at 58.1% from the field. The Vols are also ranked 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so the Cavs will need match Tennessee in scoring efficiency, which I don’t foresee happening. Lay the points with the Vols.

Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction: Tennessee -12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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