Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 02/26/25

We head to the Mountain West on Wednesday night for a Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos prediction. This matchup is an absolutely crucial one for both teams, as nearly all of the good Mountain West teams are clustered up within 10 spots in most of the net rankings systems. For Utah State, this is a must-win if they want to win the conference, as they got a huge lift from New Mexico losing last night. For Boise, most experts have them on the outside of the tournament field, so they need to pick up a big win at home in this spot. These teams played a few weeks ago at Utah State, and the Aggies pulled out a narrow 81-79 victory. I expect another close contest on Wednesday, and that takes me to the Utah State side of this spread.

If you don’t watch these teams often, here is a quick preview. Boise State is a controlled and deliberate squad. They play slowly, and they control the glass, ranking 2nd in defensive rebounding metrics, per Torvik. They are solid on both ends of the floor, but their weaknesses are that they don’t shoot the three-ball very well, and they are prone to turnovers. Utah State, on the other hand, is a very balanced team. Their offense is way better than their defense, but they often survive on offensive rebounding, something that will be a real struggle against the Broncos. Their weakness is that they don’t defend the deep ball well, but Boise shouldn’t punish them for that. We seem to have a spot for neither team is well suited to exploit the weaknesses of the other. Utah State should be the better team, but Boise is rightly favored, given that they have only lost once at home this season. Still, I like the motivational spot for the Aggies, who suddenly have a chance to win the conference if they can take care of their own business. I don’t know if Utah State can get the win, but this certainly feels like a close battle tonight. I’ll take the points with the road dog.

Utah State vs Boise State prediction: Utah State +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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