Tennessee Volunteers vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 03/16/25

The Tennessee Volunteers advanced to the SEC Championship with an upset win over the Auburn Tigers on Saturday. The Vols didn’t shoot well from the perimeter, but they connected on nearly 54% of their shots from inside the arc, shot 93% from the free throw line and gathered 10 offensive rebounds. It was a close game throughout for the Volunteers, which cannot be said for the Gators. Florida dominated Alabama in the 2nd half of Saturday’s SEC semifinal, out-scoring the Tide 57-37 in the final 20 minutes. The Gators shot 55% from inside the arc and 44% from beyond the arc in the win, while also winning the rebounding battle and the turnover battle.

This is a fascinating matchup because these teams met twice during the regular season and each team won in blowout fashion. Florida dominated the first matchup at home 73-43, while Tennessee exacted revenge with a 64-44 win in Knoxville about 1 month later. This time around, oddsmakers price Florida about 5 points better than the Vols, and I agree with that valuation. The Gators can do it all. They are highly efficient on both ends of the floor, and they have elite size to control the boards and create second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds. They are 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency over the last month (Bart Torvik), and their defense is top 30 in that span as well – both better marks than Tennessee. The Vols can look lost at times offensively, and extended stretches of poor offense are not ideal against a Florida team that can score in bunches no matter the pace at which the game is being played. Look for the Gators to pick apart Tennessee’s defense on the perimeter with the shooting of Walter Clayton, Will Richard and Alijah Martin and win by margin in Nashville.

Tennessee vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5. 

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