San Francisco Dons vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/10/25

The WCC semifinals will take place in Las Vegas on Monday, and the showcase game will feature the Gonzaga Bulldogs and San Francisco Dons in what should be a fun battle between 2 of the top 3 teams in the conference. The first 2 meetings between these teams won’t tell us everything, but they can be instructive as it relates to this matchup. In those games, Gonzaga tallied 88 points and 95 points respectively and generated consistent success against a San Francisco defense that has struggled mightily defending the paint this season (10th in the WCC in two-point defense). Those struggles were apparent in both meetings, in which Gonzaga dominated in the paint, shooting over 60% on two-pointers. There’s no reason to expect anything different in this game, especially since the Bulldogs got out to slow starts in both games and still finished with very high point totals against a San Francisco team that doesn’t play all that fast or send its opponents to the line much (247th in opponent free-throw rate).

My handicap for this game is very similar to the first 2 meetings; both defenses are overvalued and we should see plenty of points on Monday. San Francisco’s defensive metrics are solid on paper, but the Dons have benefited from some tremendous shooting luck this season, particularly from behind the arc. I don’t think that’s sustainable, and we’ve already seen Gonzaga’s offense have consistent success against a Dons defense that is extremely poor at defending the rim. That spells trouble against Graham Ike and a Zags frontcourt that combined to shoot over 65% from the field in the 2 meetings combined.

In order to beat Gonzaga, you have to turn the Bulldogs into jump-shooters in their halfcourt offense, or else they’ll consistently burn you on cuts, rolls and post-ups. If the Bulldogs are able to hit open jumpers, they should cruise to at least 85 points in a game that will likely feature plenty of possessions. Not to be outdone, San Francisco’s offense should be able to generate success against a Gonzaga defense that allows plenty of open three-point attempts and struggles to defend in isolation. I’ll go back to the well with the Over one last time in this series.

San Francisco vs Gonzaga prediction: Over 153.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.5

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