San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/11/25

In a battle between serious Mountain West title contenders, the San Diego State Aztecs will visit Albuquerque to take on the New Mexico Lobos. Both sides have had promising starts to their respective conference seasons, as the Aztecs sit at 3-1 with their only blemish coming at home against #25-ranked Utah State — where they blew an 18-point lead. For the Lobos, they are a perfect 5-0 in conference play. Although this will easily be the Lobos toughest test to date in the Mountain West, I like their chances to come away with the home victory. The Pit is an extremely tough environment to come out with a win, as we have seen many top tier Mountain West teams enter this building and walk out with a loss. The elevation is a major reason why, and being over 5300 feet above sea level is tough for a team like San Diego State that doesn’t have the same luxury on their home floor. New Mexico’s fans are also considered some of the best in college basketball, further explaining why the Lobos play so well in this arena.

New Mexico also looks to have an advantage in the shot volume department, as they are the significantly better defensive rebounding team along with having the edge in the turnover battle. The shot volume battle goes a long way when determining who wins close games, but when you also arguably have the more talented backcourt, led by Donovan Dent and Tru Washington, you deserve to have the edge in this contest. We have also seen New Mexico have success in recent matchups with San Diego State, as the Lobos have won 3 of the last 5 outright against the Aztecs, along with covering 4 of those games. When the game gets tight, I trust Donovan Dent and company to get the job done in their home arena. Let’s back the Lobos to cover as short favorites.

San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction: New Mexico -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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