Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 03/14/25

The Big Ten Tournament action really heats up with the quarterfinal round on Friday, and one of the best games of the day will be the nightcap, where the Purdue Boilermakers will take on the Michigan Wolverines. The chatter around both programs has been pretty negative in recent weeks, and for good reason. Purdue has been up-and-down over the course of the last 6 weeks, while the other shoe has finally started to drop for a Michigan that continued to win an unsustainable amount of close games. Purdue appears to be extremely vulnerable at the moment, especially since the Boilermakers didn’t look great in their narrow victory over USC on Thursday. Therefore, I suspect that some will be looking to back Michigan in a game where the Boilermakers might not be a trendy pick. However, even though I would lean toward Purdue as the side in this game, I’m more inclined to look toward the total in this contest.

For all of the skepticism around Purdue at the moment, Matt Painter’s side does have some clear advantages in this matchup, particularly on offense. After all, Michigan has been a below average 2-point percentage defense and 3-point percentage defense since the start of the calendar year, and Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn should have a big day on Friday. Kaufman-Renn’s ability to stretch the floor has been essential for this offense all season long, and he should draw Danny Wolf and the Michigan bigs out of the paint, which should set up easier looks for Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and the rest of the Boilermakers offense. On the other side, Michigan’s offense should certainly see success in this game as well, with the Wolverines sitting inside the top 50 in 2-point percentage over the last couple of months. That bodes well against a Purdue defense that is shockingly one of the worst in the nation in 2-point percentage defense since January 1 (Barttorvik). With that in mind, we can expect the Wolverines to generate plenty of successful possessions, and even get to the line if things break down in the halfcourt. All things considered, I’ll take the over in a game that should be close throughout, and could ultimately end in a free-throw shooting contest in the final minutes.

Purdue vs Michigan prediction: Over 146.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 147.

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