Ole Miss Rebels vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/26/25

Ole Miss’ conference schedule has been a roller coaster. The Rebels (19-8) started SEC play 4-0 before losing 4 of their next 5. They got back on track with a 3-game winning streak over Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina, but find themselves in the midst of another losing streak as they travel to Auburn to play the Tigers (25-2) – who have won 4 in a row after their home loss to Florida. These teams played once already this year, and Auburn controlled that game pretty much from beginning to end. The Tigers scored 1.31 points per possession in Oxford, and each of their starters scored at least 10 points in the win.

Despite their 4-game winning streak, the Tigers have failed to cover at home in 3 straight outings, largely because they haven’t shot well from the perimeter at the Jungle of late. In fact, they connected on just 17 of 68 (25%) three-point attempts in those games, which is well below their season average. Their poor offensive showing cost them the game against Florida, but they managed to beat Arkansas and Georgia despite not covering the double-digit spreads. This will be the 3rd consecutive home game for the Tigers, and because they will be matched up against a defense they have already seen and succeeded against earlier this season, I like the Tigers to get back on track offensively on Wednesday night – specifically from the perimeter. Ole Miss gives up a healthy amount of threes, ranking 312th nationally in opposing 3-point rate. Moreover, the Rebels have regressed defensively in recent weeks. They are in the 30th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics) and rank 265th in opposing effective field goal percentage since February 1 (Bart Torvik). They also have failed to cover in their last 3 games as underdogs. Lay it with Auburn.

Ole Miss vs Auburn prediction: Auburn -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 14.

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