Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/12/25

The ACC tournament rolls on in Charlotte, North Carolina on Wednesday, and one of the marquee games of the day will feature the North Carolina Tar Heels taking on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. North Carolina is squarely on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment, but the Tar Heels are undoubtedly playing much better basketball of late. Since getting blown out by Clemson back on February 10, the Tar Heels have won 6 of their last 7 games, with the only loss coming in a hard-fought battle against Duke last Saturday. Hubert Davis’ team is probably happy they won’t be drawing Pittsburgh in this matchup, as the Tar Heels did lose to the Panthers in Pittsburgh and defeated them by just 1 point in Chapel Hill. While the situational spot is being taxed a bit given that North Carolina is in must-win mode, this is still a much more advantageous matchup for RJ Davis and company, and I expect a resounding victory for the Tar Heels on Wednesday.

Notre Dame may be running on fumes after playing a 4-overtime game on Saturday against Cal, especially since the Irish followed that game with an extremely narrow 1-point victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday. That game ended on a very controversial foul call, so it’s fair to suggest that the Irish probably got a bit fortunate to even be in this game in the first place. Now, Notre Dame will have to take on a North Carolina offense that is shooting well over 40% from beyond the arc over its last 7 games, and tallied over 80 points in each of its last 6 victories. It’s also worth pointing out that the Tar Heels will essentially be playing a home game given that the game is in Charlotte. Notre Dame’s defense is very poor at defending inside the arc and doesn’t force nearly enough turnovers to throw North Carolina’s offense out of rhythm, which is a major key to beating the Tar Heels. That doesn’t bode well for a game that should feature plenty of possessions with North Carolina’s frenetic style of play. If the Heels get an early lead it could be a long day for a weary Notre Dame team.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina -8 available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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