North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/24/25

We turn to the ACC bubble teams on Monday for a North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles prediction. Both teams are trying to make a late push for the NCAA tournament, and neither can really afford a loss down the stretch. For Carolina, the metrics seem to like them, but if you have ever bet on them, you probably don’t. While they have won 4 of their last 5 down the stretch, they never seem to beat a good team. Florida State isn’t exactly one of the good teams though, although they are strong at home, going 10-4 this season. If they win out, it would include games against Carolina, Duke, and SMU, which would force some attention their way; but they really need all of those. That this spread only favors UNC by a couple points seems very suspicious, and I expect the public to flood the Carolina side of this one. That has me concerned. I think the smarter play on Monday is to chase the very high point total. My UNC vs Florida State prediction is the game total over 156.

The thing I feel most confident about in this game is that both teams want to play with pace, and neither team will take or make a lot of 3s. That means this is a game where both teams will try to get downhill, attack the rim, and try to get into their defenders. I expect a lot of layups and free throws, and probably a fair number of quick transition buckets before a defense gets set. Carolina is better at those things, but when we have a situation where both teams are trying to attack quickly, the score should escalate. I think we end up with a game in the 80s here, so I’ll play the over, even though 156 is a scary high number.

North Carolina vs Florida State Prediction: Over 156 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.